705 FXUS63 KARX 222058 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 358 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013 AT 3 PM...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN IOWA. AS THE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES /LOWER 80S/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION... EXPECT THE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST IOWA TO GRADUALLY UPSCALE AS IT MOVES INTO BETTER CAPES AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS...THINKING THAT THE STORMS BECOME MORE COLD POOL DOMINATED THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BOW ECHOS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...WITH 1000 TO 1200 J/KG DCAPES THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUDS DEPTHS BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE VERY EFFECTIVE RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER WITH THIS SAID...WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH URBANIZED AREAS WHERE JUST AN INCH OF RAIN AN HOUR CAN RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. FOR OVERNIGHT...THE 23.12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THEY HAVE SHOWED THIS FOR THE PAST 6 MODEL CYCLES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL PUSH NORTH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES...AND THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS FALL INTO THE 3.5 TO 4 KM RANGE. THIS IS IDEA THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN WANING OVERNIGHT IS SUPPORTED BY THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE HRRR WHICH SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSIVELY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN 23.07Z AND 23.09Z. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN POSITIONED TO OUR WEST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS CLIMB ABOVE 4 KM...AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST TRAINING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING. CERTAINTY ON THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THIS FRONT WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013 ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IT MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME DRYING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THIS...THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...SO JUST WENT WITH THE ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TIME PERIOD...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD PLACE THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT CLEAR AS THERE WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013 EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. PLAN ON THE BULK OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO EXTEND FROM KFSD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL MN...WITH EASTERN FRINGES OF THIS CONVECTION REACHING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INCLUDING KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...TAKING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH IT. BOTTOM LINE...INCLUDED VCTS BKN030-035CB IN THE KRST/KLSE TAFS FROM 21Z THROUGH 06Z. OTHER THAN SOME 6SM BR IN THE 08-13Z TIME FRAME...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THEN TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. SHRA/TS LOOKING LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013 HYDRO CONCERNS LINGER ACROSS TURKEY...UPPER IOWA...SOUTHERN HALF OF THE KICKAPOO...BLACK...AND TURTLE CREEK. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL STREAMS ACROSS ALLAMAKEE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA... AND CRAWFORD AND GRANT COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF MOST OF THESE BASINS. HOWEVER THERE IS CONCERN ON SUNDAY THAT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT CLEAR. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT TERM WATER CONCERNS...THERE IS A RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA...WINONA...AND LA CROSSE. THESE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE UNTIL AFTER JULY 1ST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...DAS HYDROLOGY...BOYNE