188 FXUS64 KBMX 222007 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 307 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013 .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER NICE SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE MAKING IT FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TONIGHT SHOULD BE RATHER PLEASANT WITH RURAL AREAS FALLING WELL INTO THE MID 60S. WE ARE LOOKING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIPS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. I THINK THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MUCH MORE STICKY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. NO RAIN IN THE CWA TODAY BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS SIMILAR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LIFTING MECHANISM...THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGHS NEAR 90 WITH LOWS NEAR 70. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING DOWN A COLD FRONT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA. 88 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. NO CHANGES TO TAF PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDS AND LIGHT E/SE WINDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN A WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CU FIELD THIS AFTN...RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND FLOW DO NOT APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE TO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. REMOTE/OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHRA WELL TO THE SOUTH OF MGM AND TOI DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF. BEYOND 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD HOWEVER...EXPECT SHRA/TSTM CHANCES TO RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES...BEST CHANCES VCTY MGM/TOI. JD/02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 65 86 67 86 67 / 10 20 20 30 20 ANNISTON 67 87 69 87 70 / 10 20 20 40 20 BIRMINGHAM 69 89 71 87 72 / 10 20 10 30 20 TUSCALOOSA 68 90 72 89 72 / 10 20 10 30 20 CALERA 68 87 70 87 71 / 10 20 20 30 20 AUBURN 66 85 70 87 71 / 10 50 20 40 20 MONTGOMERY 70 89 71 91 72 / 10 40 20 40 20 TROY 69 87 69 90 70 / 10 40 20 50 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$