549 
FXUS64 KHUN 211717 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS 

&& 

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 909 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013/
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING UPR LVL CIRCULATION
ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY AS IT
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST. HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW -SHRA ACROSS MIDDLE/SRN TN
THIS MRNG BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PROLONGED ACTIVITY UNTIL THIS AFTN.
DEPENDING ON DAYTIME HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION...SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TODAY. 12Z/21 SOUNDING
PROFILES AT BOTH KOHX/KBMX APPEAR SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST (COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY) BUT LOW LVL WIND PROFILES REMAIN WEAK. STILL
LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS SRN MIDDLE TN AND NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA GIVEN PROXIMITY TO UPR LVL CIRCULATION AND
BETTER FORCING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIODS
AS WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...GENERALLY QUIET ATTM ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA BUT THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ISOLD TO SCT 
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITHIN WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. STORMS COULD BE
ENHANCED BY UPR LVL CIRCULATION OVER MIDDLE TN. ALREADY SEEING
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN SRN/SRN TN. WILL HAVE 
TO MONITOR OUTFLOW-GENERATED NEW DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM. AT THIS
TIME...HAVE NO MENTION OF TS/WIND IMPACTS AT KHSV/KMSL BUT THIS COULD
CHANGE BETWEEN 22Z-03Z TIME PERIOD. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN /REDUCED VSBYS BRIEFLY TO MVFR/ WILL BE PRIMARY IMPACTS
WITH ANY TS. AFT 05Z...ANY ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE/DIMINISH AND
REMAINDER OF CURRENT TAF PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE VFR CONDITIONS.

DJN.83

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$ 

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE 
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.