961 FXUS63 KICT 210436 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1136 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 UPDATED 06Z AVIATION SECTION. .SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND HOT...WINDY AND DRY SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO EACH OTHER...WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND VERY LOW TO ZERO CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE CULPRIT IS AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS. THINKING THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE MON-TUE...WHEN TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST OF I-135. ADDITIONALLY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES EACH DAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES MAY TEND TO COOL A FEW DEGREES TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT RETROGRADING AND BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH INCREASING TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS. THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SPEEDS LIKELY STRONG ENOUGH TO AT LEAST FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST ABOUT EACH DAY GENERALLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS (25-30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS). FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE...AND WILL PASS DECISION ONTO NIGHT SHIFT FORECASTERS. THUNDERSTORM-WISE...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY EACH DAY WELL WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO AND WESTERN KS AND NE ALONG/EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH...BUT WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK FORCING WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM WILL VENTURE INTO CENTRAL KS NORTH OF I-70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THINKING BRUNT OF THIS THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN KS AND NE. A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARRIVE BY MID-LATE WEEK...AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION...IN RESPONSE TO MID/UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADING WEST AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS. ADK && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KRSL TAF SITE. NOT EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS IT MOVES EAST INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. MAY SEE IT LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR KRSL...SO WILL GO WITH VCSH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER WRN KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON WINDS GUSTY AS HIGH AS 35 KTS ACROSS CEN KS FOR FRI AFTN. KETCHAM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 74 95 73 94 / 10 10 10 0 HUTCHINSON 74 97 72 96 / 10 10 10 0 NEWTON 73 96 72 95 / 10 10 10 0 ELDORADO 74 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 74 94 73 93 / 10 10 10 0 RUSSELL 72 99 72 98 / 10 10 10 0 GREAT BEND 72 97 72 96 / 10 10 10 0 SALINA 74 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 0 MCPHERSON 73 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 0 COFFEYVILLE 74 91 73 91 / 10 10 10 0 CHANUTE 72 91 72 91 / 10 10 10 0 IOLA 72 91 72 91 / 10 10 10 0 PARSONS-KPPF 73 91 73 90 / 10 10 10 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$