184 FXUS62 KMHX 151440 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 1030 AM SAT...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST MAINLY FOR TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY QUICKER AND A DIURNAL DELAY AND DRYING DEWPOINTS. NICE DAY ON TAP FOR EASTERN NC WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIP WATERS RANGE 0.70-0.80 INCHES...ROUGHLY 2 SD BELOW NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. WILL SEE SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS WARMING INTO THE MID 80S INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 ON THE COAST. LGT AND VRBL WINDS BECOME W THEN SW DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM SAT...CLR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ALTHOUGH DPTS GRDLY COME UP WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY LATE FOG WITH DPTS RISING INTO THE LWR AND MID 60S WITH LGT WINDS EXPECTED. FAIRLY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH MINS FROM THE LWR TO MID 60S...AND AROUND 70 ON THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 4 AM SAT...FLAT RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUN INTO MON WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE BRINGING SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. BROAD TROUGHING GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURNS MON WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO BRING A THREAT OF ISOL-SCT CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. A MODEST SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MON NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUE BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS PW'S INCREASE TO ABOVE 1.5" WITH THE REGION MOVING INTO FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND DEEPER WITH A SFC LOW PUSHING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON TUE. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WED AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SRN REGIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO FOR THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM SAT...OUTSIDE OF THE POSSIBILITIES OF PATCHY EARLY MORNING EARLY FOG EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL SEE SOME CU AROUND 5K FT DURG THE DAY. LGT AND VRBL WINDS BECOME W THEN SW AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 4 AM SAT...PRED VFR EXPECTED SUN INTO MON WITH SWLY FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH TUE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WED. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE MON AFTERNOON AND COULD SEE ISOL-SCT CONVECTION BRINGING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS BUT BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS COME MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1040 AM SAT...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBS INDICATE WNW WINDS 10-15 KT N OF OCRACOKE AND WNW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS SOUTH. SEAS RANGE 2-4 FT IN MEDIUM PERIOD 9 SECOND SWELL. THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT CONTINUING TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-5 FT OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 4 AM SAT...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFFSHORE SUN AND MON BRINGING SWLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-20 KT SUN MORNING A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL TIGHTEN GRADIENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 15-25 KT...STRONGEST IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND...WHICH CONTINUES INTO EARLY MON MORNING. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT SUN MORNING INCREASE TO 4-6 FT BY SUN EVENING IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS. GRADIENTS RELAX SLIGHTLY MON INTO TUE WITH SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT. A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY WED WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE AND PROGGED TO BE AOB 15 KT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE AND CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS... WHICH IS SLOWER AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRES LIFTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TUE/TUE NIGHT...PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 30 KT WITH WAVEWATCH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 6-9 FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG NEAR TERM...DAG SHORT TERM...JAC LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...JAC/SK MARINE...JAC/SK/DAG