880 FXUS62 KFFC 151134 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 734 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013/ .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE INDICATES SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING ALONG THE NW FLOW ALOFT NEAR NORTH GA...THOUGH IS MOISTURE STARVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO WEST IS PROGGED TO DAMPEN OUT INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULTANT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH A MORE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELD APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNALLY AND OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. PROGGED MUCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 2000 J/KG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AND WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE FORECAST THAN THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAJORITY OF AREA EXCEPT FOR EAST CENTRAL GA...AND LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH. FOR TEMPS...HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL BLEND OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AS THIS LOOKS REASONABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MET IS A BIT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUN FOR SUNDAY MAX TEMPS LIKELY DUE TO A SLUG OF STRONGER GULF MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOLUTION...WHICH IS A BIT OF AN ANOMALY AMONG THE SUITE OF OTHER MODELS. HAVE THEREFORE LEANED TOWARD OTHER CONSENSUS FOR THAT PERIOD. BAKER && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL AND MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IS NOT INDICATED ON THE OTHER MODELS. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WHILE WEAK IMPULSES TRAVEL ALONG IT. HAVE INCLUDED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURES A BIT MAINLY TOWARD THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK DUE TO VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND ALSO AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW. 41 && .AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE GENERALLY FEW TO SCT AT 6-7 KFT FOR MAJORITY OF TIME AND SOME CIRRUS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. INITIAL CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN A SHIFT TO SW IS LIKELY AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. //ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE... HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. BAKER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 88 64 88 68 / 0 5 20 20 ATLANTA 86 68 86 70 / 0 5 20 20 BLAIRSVILLE 82 59 83 64 / 0 5 30 30 CARTERSVILLE 87 65 87 69 / 0 5 30 30 COLUMBUS 90 70 89 72 / 0 5 20 20 GAINESVILLE 85 66 85 69 / 0 5 30 20 MACON 89 67 89 71 / 0 5 20 20 ROME 88 64 87 68 / 0 5 30 30 PEACHTREE CITY 87 64 86 67 / 0 5 20 20 VIDALIA 90 69 90 72 / 0 5 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAKER LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...BAKER