121 FXUS64 KLUB 151121 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 621 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 .AVIATION... MVFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE DEVELOPED AT KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS ANTICIPATED TO SCOUR OUT BY MID-MORNING. LIGHT SRLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY BY THE AFTN HOURS /15-17 KTS/. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED TO NEAR KCDS...ALTHOUGH LATEST RADAR SIGNATURE INDICATED A WANING TREND. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WELL SOUTH OF KCDS AND WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A VCSH MENTION FOR KCDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTN ATTM...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THIS EVENING...PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST OF KCDS AND SRLY WINDS WILL DECLINE A BIT TO AOA 10 KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/ SHORT TERM... SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN TX PANHANDLE....ROLLING PLAINS AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NNE. THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY IS OF COURSE COURTESY OF THE UA WEAKNESS THAT HAS TREKKED NNE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THUS NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT...HAVE TRANSLATED SSE FROM THE WRN AND SWRN ZONES TO ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS LINE WAS CHARACTERIZED BY EMBEDDED HEAVIER ECHOES AS NOTED BY THE TEXAS TECH MESONET SITES A FEW HOURS AGO AT DORA NEW MEXICO AND MORTON /A QUICK THREE-TENTHS OF AN INCH WITHIN ONE HOUR/. HOWEVER...THIS LINE HAS SINCE LOST ITS STRENGTH AND LINEARITY LOOK. MODEL SOLUTIONS DISPLAY THE UA WEAKNESS MOVING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY THUS SHIFTING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES TO THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...TO FINALLY EAST OF THE FA BY 16/00Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED TO BE LIGHT IN GENERALLY BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS /A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH/ IF TRAINING OCCURS. AS THE WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION...UA RIDGING WILL COMMENCE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE DESERT SW...WITH THE CENTER NOTED ACROSS NERN OLD MEXICO. AS SUCH...INCREASING HEIGHT FIELDS SUGGESTS A WARMER DAY /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S/...AND THEREFORE IT IS NO SURPRISE TO SEE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WITH FORECAST SOLUTIONS DISPLAYING AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SAID CENTER OF THE RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL FOCUS PROVIDED BY THE DRYLINE /AND A NEARBY SFC TROUGH/...WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTN. THIS IS OF IMPORTANCE TO US BECAUSE ADEQUATE WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO NEAR/MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SWRN TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NW ZONES TONIGHT. LONG TERM... POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A FLAT UPPER RIDGE SUNDAY MAY ALLOW HIGH TERRAIN STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN BACKED TO THE SE AND REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST. AT THE VERY LEAST SHOULD SEE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR PRECIP TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN NM. CHC POPS FOR EACH OF THOSE SCENARIOS IS WARRANTED. CHANGE COMES MIDWEEK WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE JUST ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO THE SW FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE CNTL PLAINS RESULTING IN LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NM AND EVEN LESS FAVORABLE TOWARD MOVING THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM INTO THE FCST AREA. AS A RESULT KEEPING POPS BELOW MENTION IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS APPROPRIATE. TEMPS LIKELY TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S UNDER THIS REGIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 90 65 91 65 88 / 10 10 10 10 30 TULIA 89 67 94 68 91 / 20 10 20 20 30 PLAINVIEW 89 68 92 68 89 / 20 10 20 20 20 LEVELLAND 90 68 91 70 93 / 10 10 10 10 20 LUBBOCK 89 69 95 70 93 / 20 10 10 20 20 DENVER CITY 91 69 93 70 94 / 10 10 10 10 20 BROWNFIELD 90 69 95 71 93 / 10 10 10 10 20 CHILDRESS 91 70 97 71 96 / 40 10 20 20 30 SPUR 87 69 95 71 95 / 30 10 20 20 20 ASPERMONT 90 73 96 73 98 / 40 10 20 20 20 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 29