342 FXUS63 KDDC 142305 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 605 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 WATER VAPOR AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF A 500MB LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF EL PASO TX AT 12Z FRIDAY. NORTHWEST OF THIS UPPER LOW A 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTH FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A LARGE AREA OF +14 TO +15C TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM DODGE CITY TO DENVER TO NEAR NORTH PLATTE. FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE UPPER LOW COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED WITH +8C AT MIDLAND TX. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z WERE AT 24C AT DODGE CITY AND NORTH PLATTE. AT THE SURFACE EARLIER THIS MORNING A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 AT 18Z A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO WITH CU DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AT 21Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY RANGED FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE BETTER SHEAR APPEARING FURTHER NORTH. THE 12Z NAM ALSO INDICATED CAPES FROM 500 TO 2000J/KG NEAR THIS BOUNDARY LATE TODAY. CORFIDI VECTORS, MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS, AND BUNKER STORM MOTION ALL SUGGESTING ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP LATE TODAY WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT THESE STORMS LATE TODAY SHOULD STAY JUST NORTH OF WEST CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THIS AREA EARLY TONIGHT WHICH STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LOCATED EAST OF EL PASO TX AT 12Z WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE IMPROVING MOISTURE IN THE 800 TO 700MB LEVEL AND LIFT FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO PRATT LINE. GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S BUT A FEW UPPER 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATURDAY THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A 700MB-500MB DEFORMATION ZONE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE 800MB- 700MB MOISTURE PROFILES, TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW, AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL FOCUS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF A LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO HAYS LINE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOME FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE 700-500 DEFORMATION ZONE CROSSES WESTERN KS. GIVEN SOME AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL TREND TEMPERATURE TOWARDS THE WARMER NAM 2M TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WHILE FURTHER EAST LEFT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET/MAV/MOSGUIDE GUIDANCE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM THE MID 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 95 NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT WHICH SHOULD HAVE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN PLAINS CREATING A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH TIME. IN THE MEANTIME, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN PRODUCING LATE DAY CONVECTION SUNDAY ACROSS THE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BESIDE THE CHANCE FOR AN INITIAL SEVERE CONVECTION HAIL AND WIND THREAT, THE MODELS DRIVE AN MCS SOUTHEAST ACROSS A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT AND INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES AND AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS PATTERN, MUCH OF THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEPENDS ON THE OCCURRENCE OF A MID LEVEL TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH THE MODELS DEVELOP. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY WITH HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY WIDESPREAD 55-60 PERCENT OR HIGHER POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN RAIN COOLED AIR, POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND TRAJECTORIES (A COMPLETE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS) HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD TYPICAL HIGHS FOR MID JUNE (GENERALLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID 80'S). ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME APPEAR MORE CLOSELY LINKED TO DIURNAL HEATING INDUCED SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE MODELS STILL TEND TO OVERTURN INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS, AND GIVEN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE PLAUSIBLE EVEN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN KS. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 23 EASTWARD WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW AND INSTABILITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE TOPPING SHORTWAVE. BESIDE HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60'S, POSSIBLE EVEN AROUND 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE UPSWING BACK THROUGH THE 90'S BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS, A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30KT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 15KT LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THEN INCREASE UP AROUND 15 TO 25KT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 72 90 69 90 / 20 30 30 20 GCK 68 92 68 88 / 10 20 40 20 EHA 68 94 68 92 / 10 20 30 20 LBL 69 92 69 94 / 20 20 30 20 HYS 70 88 68 87 / 10 30 30 20 P28 74 88 71 92 / 30 40 30 30 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BURGERT SHORT TERM...BURGERT LONG TERM...RUSSELL AVIATION...JJOHNSON