645 FXUS63 KFGF 121743 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 THE SPRINKLES LIFTED NORTHWARD UP THRU THE FARGO MOORHEAD AREA AND THE KDTL/KPKD AREAS BUT ARE NOW SINKING SOUTHWARD AGAIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN MN SO ECHOES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LEFT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THRU MID AFTERNOON THEN WILL SEE IF IT DRIES OUT COMPLETELY. CLOUD COVER SHOWING NO SIGNS OF THINNING AND CUMULUS FIELD REALLY TOOK OFF ACROSS THE NORTH TOO SO WILL BUMP UP CLOUD AMOUNTS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 WV LOOP SHOWS A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY IS TO OUR SOUTH AND IS REFLECTED IN THE BETTER CONVECTION OVER SD...THERE IS A DECENT VORT MAX OVER WESTERN ND. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME MODERATE LIFT OVER THE AREA UNTIL IT MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THINK THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS MORNING SO INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDER MENTIONED UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENCE SETS IN OVER THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET AND WARM AS RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT AGAIN IN THE 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON STARTING TO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS A SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TIMING AND WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES FALL...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SOMETHING HAPPENING TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 70S FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE TRACK OF A UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT AND SUN. CHC OF THUNDER AND SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW SLIDES SE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY DRYING THE LOW LEVELS WITH ANY INSTABILITY PRIMARILY CAUSED BY COLD POOL ALOFT. SFC HIGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HI TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED SAT AND SUN A BIT COOLER MON AND TUES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE ABOVE 10000 FT FOR THE MOST PART AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GODON SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/JK AVIATION...JR