706 FXUS64 KJAN 110908 AFDJAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 408 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB UP TO NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE WILL CHANGE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A TOUCH ACROSS THE AREA...THUS SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100-104 ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN SOME AREAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE./15/ .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE MCS STRONG ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL COMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND STRONG MCS STORM POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY POPS AND TEMPS. MODELS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. STARTING ON THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AS A SHORT WAVE PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK FRONT INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME STRONG INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL MCS THAT COULD COME DOWN ACROSS THE REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE INDICES CAPES >5000, MLCAPE >3000, LI NEAR -8, LAPSE RATE 6-7C, SHOWALTER -4 TO -5, MIDLEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60-70 MPH WOULD BE THE MAIN RISK WITH SOME HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTING. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE REGION ON DAY 3. HOWEVER DRY 700 MB TEMPS WILL BE 10-12C WITH A STRONG CAP AND THE UPPER JET POSITION WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME CONSISTENT RUNS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL MCS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER CONCERN IS WHEN YOU COMBINE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES...COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW IN THE HWO AND SEE AS HOWS HANDLE THAT IN MODEL RUNS TO COME. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION. FOR MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE AXIS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL STRONG MCS CLUSTER TO CROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY. KEPT SOME LOW DIURNAL POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A LITTLE BETTER POPS FOR MONDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S DURING THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WENT CLOSE TO MEX AND SOME GMOS GUIDANCE. AS FAR AS POPS ARE CONCERN MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MEX POPS ON THURSDAY...THEN WENT CLOSE TO IT ON SUNDAY...THEN CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE POPS WITH SECOND MCS POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. /17/ && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT HBG FROM 10-14Z...VFR THEREAFTER. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FROM 5-10KTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 94 71 96 72 / 0 0 3 5 MERIDIAN 94 70 97 70 / 0 0 4 4 VICKSBURG 93 70 95 70 / 0 0 3 5 HATTIESBURG 94 72 96 71 / 0 0 4 2 NATCHEZ 91 71 93 71 / 0 0 3 2 GREENVILLE 95 72 96 73 / 0 0 2 6 GREENWOOD 94 70 96 73 / 0 0 2 6 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 15/17