564 
FXUS64 KHGX 110900
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TYPICAL SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. 

THERE APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY AS THE
INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS IN PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. LIFT TODAY WILL
COME FROM A WEDGE OF VORTICITY MOVING ACROSS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH. AT 500MB HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY STARTING TO
WORK INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD HINDER SOME OF THE DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY REVEAL PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.60" WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 85 TO 90 RANGE TODAY WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE
30-35 RANGE. RAIN SHOULD START IN THE OFFSHORE MARINE WATERS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH THE SEABREEZE STARTING IN
THE AFTERNOON.

BY WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS 925MB- 700MB
RH DROPS RAPIDLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DECENT PWAT VALUES
BUT GIVEN THE SKINNY CAPE IN THE 925MB- 700MB RANGE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY CAUSE MOST UPDRAFTS TO FAIL. ON THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD WHICH SPELLS MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. 23

&&

.AVIATION...
BELIEVE SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN PARTS OF SE TX 
TODAY...ESP SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED. 
WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (EXPECT SOME 
DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE) AND POSSIBLY ADD EITHER SOME VCTS'S OR EVEN 
TEMPOS FOR SOME SITES. FIRST GUESSES FOR FAVORED TIME PERIODS WOULD 
BE 12-16Z GLS, 14-18Z LBX, 16-20Z HOU/SGR, 17-21Z IAH/CXO. RIDGING 
TO THE NORTH SHOULD LIMIT CHANCES ENOUGH FURTHER NORTH NOT TO 
MENTION ATTM. VFR OUTSIDE ANY PRECIP.  47

&&

.MARINE... 
EXPECT SOME SCT SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE IN THE 
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE TOWARD 
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FCST. HIGH PRES 
OVER THE ERN GULF WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW 
SEAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  47
 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      95  74  95  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              93  75  94  75  95 /  30  10  10  10  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  80  89  80  89 /  20  10  10  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...47