476 FXUS61 KBOX 110759 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 359 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH SOME SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS SNE AND HAVE NOTED A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAVIER SHOWERS GENERALLY PRODUCING 0.25-0.50"/HR RATES BUT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1"/HR IN ANY TSTMS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH SW CT AND EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE THROUGH 12Z...POSSIBLY LINGERING A FEW HOURS LATER ACROSS N MA AND S NH. WE DROPPED THE FLOOD WATCH IN CT AS THE RAIN IS MOVING OUT...BUT WILL HOLD ON TO THE WATCH ELSEWHERE AS HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS MID LEVEL TROF SWINGS THROUGH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL COOLING AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL FROM -8 TO 12C. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION BUT SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH APPEARS WILL BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF CT/RI AND SE MA. GFS/NAM GENERATING SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CT AND RI BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WILL DEVELOP WHICH COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY EVEN FURTHER. MAIN THREAT WITH ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS STILL AROUND 1.5" BUT LOW PROB OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS CT/RI AND POSSIBLY SE MA. WE DO HAVE ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR BUT LACK OF SFC INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS. TEMP FORECAST WILL BE A TOUGH ONE AS WARM FRONT STALLS ACROSS SNE WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL FOR 70S TO THE S. SO BUST POTENTIAL IS LARGE. WE USED THE NAM DEPICTION OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH HAS IT STALL JUST S OF THE MASS PIKE NEAR MA/CT/RI BORDER. SO WE HAVE 70S ACROSS CT/RI AND PORTIONS OF SE MA...COOLING TO THE 60S TO THE N AND UPPER 50S S NH AND NE MA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... TONIGHT...FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST IN THE EVENING WITH EVENING SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS DIMINISHING. BUT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE N OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE N. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. * COASTAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE REGION ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. * COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK...SLIGHTLY WARMUP FOR WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL FORECAST. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR HOWEVER TIMING DIFFERENCE AND MESOSCALE PARAMETERS DIFFER. OVERALL PATTERN GENERALLY REMAINS THE SAME WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE COASTS. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BREAK ANYTIME SOON...THEREFORE HAVE CONFIDENCE OF AN ACTIVE/WET PATTERN WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TEMPS. DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT...BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BELIEVE THEY WILL BE OUT OF THE REGION ON WED HOWEVER...WITH STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...COULD STILL SEE SOME ISO SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... FOCUS THE FORECAST MAINLY ON THIS PORTION. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COASTAL STORM FURTHER NORTH AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE EC HOWEVER SINCE BOTH KEEP TRENDING NORTHWARD HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME WEATHER HEADLINES TO WATCH OUT FOR IS MORE FLOODING...WIND AND SURF. FOR NOW CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT IN LATER FORECASTS. COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE COASTAL BRING A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. HOWEVER AN ISO SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL STILL AT OR BELOW AVG. WEEKEND... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND A CHANCE TO DRY OUT. TEMPS WILL STILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM...NEARING AVG AS 850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8-10C. RIGHT NOW ANTICIPATE A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR EVEN A PERIOD OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF CT/RI AND SE MA. SHOWERS WILL LIFT TO THE N THIS MORNING...BUT MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE EVENING ACROSS N ZONES. MORE IFR TONIGHT...BUT MVFR/VFR POSSIBLE CT VALLEY. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH PERIOD. WEDNESDAY...SCT SHOWERS WILL KEEP CIGS IN MVFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST BETWEEN 20-25KTS. THURSDAY-FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR SOUTH OF ROUTE 6 THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ISOLATED IFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS CAPE AND ISLANDS. SATURDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF SW GUSTS TO 25 KT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. ACROSS THE NE MA COASTAL WATERS...EAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WE UNDERCUT WNAWAVE GUIDANCE BUT STILL EXPECT SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT OVER THE S COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR LINGERING SEAS ESP ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST ON WED UP TO 25KTS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BE BELOW CRITERIA AT THE START. APPROACHING COASTAL SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SEAS AND WINDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOW PROB FOR NORTHEASTERLY GALES FRIDAY AS LOW PASSES OVER THE SOUTHER WATERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH END SCA. SATURDAY...LINGERING SCA SEAS AS WINDS DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY && .HYDROLOGY... WE KEPT THE FLOOD WATCH GOING AS THERE IS STILL SOME HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WATCH WAS DROPPED FOR CT WHERE THE RAIN IS MOVING OUT. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR URBAN FLOODING...BUT SOME SMALLER STREAMS ARE ALSO VULNERABLE TO FLOOD...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN RI AND SE MA WHICH HAVE RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SO FAR WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES. FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RI... WHERE MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SW RI MAINLY FOR THE PAWCATUCK RIVER WHICH WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON LATEST NERFC GUIDANCE MINOR FLOODING MAY ALSO AFFECT FOLLOWING RIVERS... * ASSABET RIVER AT MAYNARD MA * SUDBURY RIVER AT SAXONVILLE/FRAMINGHAM MA && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026. NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ011-012-015. RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237- 254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ250. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DOODY NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...KJC/DOODY MARINE...KJC/DOODY HYDROLOGY...KJC