232 FXUS61 KBGM 081956 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 356 PM EDT SAT JUN 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST. DRY AIR IS STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS DRY AIR WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INHIBIT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 330 PM EDT UPDATE... THE DENSE CLOUD DECK CONTINUES HOLD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH ISOLATED REGIONS IN THE LOW 70S. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE MUCH MORE AS THE DECK SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE E PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL END BY THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER NY AND PA RESULTING A DRY FORECAST. A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL BE PRESENT AS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 330 PM EDT UPDATE... THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS STARTING TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ROCKIES WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS/NEW ECMWF TRACK AS THE MODELS INDICATE A LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. UNDER THIS SCENARIO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO NORTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES ULTIMATELY ALLOWING IT TO QUICKLY EXIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE THE CMC MAINTAINS A FURTHER SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS ALLOWING THE FIRST WAVE TO CONTINUOUSLY DIG BEFORE CLOSING OFF THE AMERICAN SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT...UNSETTLE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH A THUNDER MENTION ON TUES AS INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN CREEPS NORTH AS REGION WORKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 230 PM UPDATE... ON THE LARGE-SCALE...THE PERSISTENT FEATURES OF NOTE FOR OUR FA LTR THIS WEEK...WILL BE AN UPR-LVL TROUGH ACRS SERN CANADA...AND AN UPR-LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN AND S-CNTRL CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD NEWD WITH TIME...A NW FLOW PATN ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. OCNL NRN STREAM WVS WILL TRAVERSE THIS FLOW PATN...AND PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST SCTD -SHRA DURG THE MID-WEEK PD. ATTM...IT SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FORCED LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE SUPPLY MAY RESIDE S OF OUR CWA...BUT AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...BOTH HPC AND NWP CONSENSUS PAINT A CHC OF SHWRS...AND WE ACCEPTED THIS...GIVEN THE CUSTOMARY MEDIUM RANGE UNCERTAINTIES. FROM FRI ONWARD...MODEL/HPC PROGS SHOW SFC RIDGING COMING IN FROM THE W...ALG WITH BLDG HTS ALOFT. THUS...DRY WX IS STILL INDICATED IN THE GRIDS TWDS NEXT WEEKEND. WITH NO STG TEMP SIGNALS DEPICTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WE WENT WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR MID-JUNE (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LWR 80S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S). && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 18Z UPDATE... VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN. IFR CONDS ARE PRETTY MUCH GONE ATTM...BUT MVFR CIG BASES WILL LIKELY PERSIST TIL MID TO LATE AFTN...AS MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A BUILDING INVERSION ALOFT. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING VFR TO RETURN AREA-WIDE IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME LTR THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. TRICKY FCST LTR TNT/EARLY SUN REGARDING POTENTIAL VLY FOG DVLPMT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLEARING OVERNIGHT...WITHIN A LGT FLOW REGIME...AND WITH RECENT RAINFALL MOST SITES...TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG. KELM IS NORMALLY THE MAIN CULPRIT HERE...AND WE SUSPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE AGN. THUS...WE'LL GO WITH DVLPG IFR AT THIS LOCALE AFTER 06-07Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR VSBYS ARE FORESEEN AT THIS JUNCTURE...IN LIGHTER FOG. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MRNG SUN...WITH VFR PREVALENT AT ALL SITES IN THE LATE MRNG-EARLY AFTN PD. WINDS WILL BE W TO NW AT THE SFC THIS AFTN AT 5-10 KT. WINDS SHOULD BASICALLY DIMINISH TO LGT AND VRBL AFTER DARK...AND REMAIN FAIRLY LGT ON SUN. OUTLOOK... MON AND TUE...SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY...SPCLY FROM MON EVE ONWARD...AS SHWRS DVLP OVER THE AREA. WED AND THU...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KAH NEAR TERM...KAH SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...MLJ