576 
FXUS63 KOAX 070840
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT FRI JUN 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TSTM CHANCES AND SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST 
CONCERNS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING 
WILL SLIDE EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY TO PARTLY 
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. 

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS. 
THAT MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 C IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z SATURDAY) IN COMBINATION WITH ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IN THE 305-310 K LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. INITIALLY
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT 850 MB LIFTED INDICES DROP
TO LESS THAN 0 BY LATE TONIGHT IN EASTERN NEBRASKA.

KEPT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH SATURDAY...THEN KEPT PREVIOUS 
TREND OF GRADUALLY DECREASING POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST 
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SEVERE WEATHER 
POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND 
INSTABILITY...BUT SOME DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY AGREE WITH SPC DAY 2 OTLK.
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE VALUES COULD REACH 1000-2000 J/KG WITH 25-35
KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

KEPT SOME SMALL CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MOST SHOULD BE EAST 
OF OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 
LOWER TO MID 80S. IF 00Z ECMWF MODEL WOULD VERIFY...IT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THAT.  ALSO KEPT SOME CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE
REGION AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE.

MILLER

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA.
SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT MAY SEE A FEW CU AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

MAYES

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$