950 FXHW60 PHFO 021927 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 930 AM HST SUN JUN 2 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE ALOHA STATE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AND KEEP LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE TRADES WILL THEN DECREASE A LITTLE BY MID WEEK...BUT REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH RAINFALL FAVORING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. && .DISCUSSION... A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...WITH A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO ABOUT 350 MILES N OF OAHU...AND KEEPING A TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH MON. PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALOFT REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS IN THE ADVISORY LVL OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS AND THE HALEAKALA SUMMIT IN MAUI. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE SUMMITS UNTIL THIS EVENING...AND IT MAY BE EXTENDED IF NECESSARY. ALSO...STRONG WINDS OVER THE WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY ARE SPREADING INTO KAHOOLAWE AND LEEWARD KOHALA...WHICH ARE ALSO INCLUDED IN THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE WITH A MID LVL RIDGE ALOFT PROVIDING AN INVERSION AROUND 5-6 KFT...WHICH CAN BE OBSERVED IN THE 12Z LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDING DATA. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL KEEP BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE LARGER SHOWERS BEING PUSHED INTO LEEWARD LOCATIONS AT TIMES BY THE GUSTY TRADES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE TRADES DECREASING A LITTLE IN RESPONSE. THEY ALSO SUGGEST DECREASING MOISTURE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH THE TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE LANAI AIRPORT. WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH BY LATER MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON TO REQUIRE AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE. && .MARINE... PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE WILL KEEP FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE... MAINTAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS IN AT LEAST SOME AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BRING ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF TO E FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A SMALL NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. A SMALL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...UNTIL A LARGER S SWELL ARRIVES LATE MONDAY. IF IT ARRIVES AS EXPECTED...THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF WELL ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG S FACING SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA...MAUNA LOA AND HALEAKALA AND FOR KAHOOLAWE AND LEEWARD KOHALA THROUGH 6 PM HST THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS...KAUAI CHANNEL...AND KAUAI...OAHU...MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR THE KAIWI...PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. && $$ SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...REYNES MARINE...BIRCHARD LAU...AVIATION