580 FXUS64 KSHV 302037 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 337 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ATTM ACROSS MOST OF AREA...EXCEPT MORE ISOLD FOR MOST OF NE TX. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY DIURNAL...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SVR STORMS IN CENTRAL OK MAY PUSH BOUNDARIES INTO NORTHERN CWA. KEEPING HIGHER POP INTO EVENING TO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS WELL AS EXISTING TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM. ALTHOUGH CURRENT STORMS DO NOT APPEAR THAT STRONG OVER SE OK...AND IMMEDIATE BORDERING NE TX/SW AR...SIGNS OF LOW LVL ROTATION IN STORMS IS ABUNDANT. A LITTLE MORE IN WAY OF SUBSIDENCE AND MID LVL DRYING APPARENT ON FRIDAY...WITH NEARLY NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT DISSECTING SOUTHERN PLAINS...REMAINING NEARLY STNRY. BUT WITH SIMILAR LOW LVL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES...WILL BLANKET ISOLD COVERAGE AREAWIDE FOR AFTN AND EARLY EVE HOURS ONLY TOMORROW. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROGRESS INTO SE OK BY SAT AFTN...WITH INSTABILITY DECENT ENOUGH FOR STG STORMS. LOW LVL SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE...AND GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE BIGGEST THREAT...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING CELLS NEAR FRONT. CAPPING AHEAD OF FRONT COULD BE LIMITING FACTOR FOR EARLY INITIATION ON SATURDAY...THUS...CUT POPS BACK A LITTLE UNTIL SAT NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL PUMP A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO REGION TO START OUT NEXT WEEK...WITH AT LEAST A QUESTIONABLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION BY MID WEEK WITH DEEP UPPER LOW OVER MIDWEST STATES...BUT NO CLEAR CUT SFC FEATURES YET EVIDENT./VII/ && .AVIATION... ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY ACROSS N LA/SW AR...AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS WILL RETURN BEFORE SUNRISE AND HOLD THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE... SELY WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS PD...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /12/ $$ .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 89 72 88 73 / 30 20 20 30 50 MLU 72 91 71 89 72 / 40 20 20 30 50 DEQ 71 87 71 84 65 / 50 20 20 50 70 TXK 72 88 71 88 70 / 40 20 20 40 60 ELD 71 89 71 87 69 / 50 20 20 30 50 TYR 73 90 73 88 73 / 20 20 20 30 50 GGG 73 90 73 88 73 / 20 20 20 30 50 LFK 74 92 73 91 74 / 20 20 20 20 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071. LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>003-010-011-017-018. OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077. TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$