782 FXUS63 KDDC 291926 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 226 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 ...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PLACING SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION AND IN TURN HELP SUSTAIN ANY STORMS THAT FORM. AS YOU HEAD TO THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING BECOMES APPARENT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND IS WHERE STORMS WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH POSSIBLE. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DODGE TO LARNED LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE FELT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM HILL CITY TO GARDEN CITY TO HUGOTON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL INITIALLY START OUT AS DISCRETE CELLS THEN CONGEAL INTO A LINE AS THEY TREK TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS LINE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE INITIAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO WICHITA'S AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER TO MID 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW AND STRENGTHENS INTO A LOW. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL THEN BE PLACED ABOVE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ONLY SHIFT WINDS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT STALLS OUT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, BUT QUICKLY MOVE INTO WICHITA'S FORECAST RESPONSIBILITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS SEEM TO DEPICT A VERY SIMILAR TREND TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO START FRIDAY OFF, WITH A SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL COME SOUTHWARD WITH THE UPPER WAVE, AND BRING A LITTLE COOLER AIR IN FOR THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY'S HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F DEGREES, BUT THEN THE WEEKEND WILL COOL DOWNWARD AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH OF I-70 AND IN THE LOWER 80S DOWN ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR NOW, THERE WILL BE STRONG WARM UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO SLIP SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY, AND RESULTANT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWER, NEAR 80F DEGREES IN HAYS AND PERHAPS THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE LIBERAL AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS. THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF A HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND LINE. AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT, SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS SHOULD BE PRECIP-FREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TAKING OVER. THEN THE UPPER FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND A SHORT WAVE WILL SLIP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH KANSAS MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE WARM UP AND COOL UPPER WAVE PASSING OVERHEAD, SMALL SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE INTRODUCED MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE PICTURE AT THE SURFACE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES TO CHANCES GOING FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY. AS EACH PRECIPITATION EVENT COMES INTO THE NEAR TERM, SEVERE CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. I HAVE PLACED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 61 87 60 87 / 40 10 10 20 GCK 58 86 57 86 / 30 10 10 20 EHA 57 89 58 89 / 10 10 10 10 LBL 59 90 60 90 / 20 10 10 20 HYS 61 82 59 84 / 60 20 20 20 P28 65 86 67 88 / 60 20 20 30 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-045-046- 063>066-075>081-085>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42 LONG TERM...BURKE AVIATION...HOVORKA_42