198 FXUS61 KRLX 291033 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 626 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REACHES WEST FROM ATLANTIC OCEAN. HEAT BUILDS AND LINGERS INTO SATURDAY. HUMIDITY INCREASES FRIDAY/SATURDAY. COLD FRONT SLOWLY PASSES LONG ABOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UNLIKE YESTERDAY...NO DETECTABLE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES THAT WE CAN CURRENTLY SEE FOR TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD ABOUT 20 METERS. YET...AS EXPECTED...MARGINAL 850 MOISTURE LINGER OVERHEAD. IN RESPONSE...FEW PATCHES OF 5 THSD FOOT CLOUDS ACTUALLY HAVE BEEN FORMING OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT ON THIS GRAVEYARD SHIFT. DID LEAVE A MINIMUM 20 OR 30 POP THIS AFTN OVER OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS. BUT WITH DEW POINTS MIXING OUT/LOWERING...ACTUALLY CUT BACK A BIT ON AREAL COVERAGE OF THOSE RELATIVELY LOW POPS. IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...THIS MARGINAL 850 MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH TODAY. SO HOURLY SKY/CLOUD AMOUNTS ARE TOUGH TO FIGURE. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING...TRIED TO INCREASE MOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 1 TO 3 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH...3 TO 6 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH. SO ITS MAINLY THE HEAT. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT BE UNUSUALLY HIGH. LESS FLOW AT 925 MB EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A BIT. CONTINUE TO HAVE THE MILDER READINGS IN THE MID OHIO AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...COMPARED TO FURTHER E AND SE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH MOST OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT DOES START BREAKING DOWN WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER CWA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SPELLS A PERIOD OF WARM WEATHER TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK. DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE DRIVEN POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN AS THE RIDGE BEGINS BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX RIDES UP THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE NAM SUITE OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE MET AND SREF...HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER THAN OTHERS PER LOCAL VERIFICATION STATS...SO TRENDED TOWARDS NAM SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS. THIS ONLY RESULTED IN MINOR CHANGES WITH 80S TO LOW 90 FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND GENERALLY 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HPC AND MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH UPPER RIDGE SLIDING E...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE W THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE THROUGH LATE SUN AND SUN NT. MAINTAINED PREVIOUS LIKELY FCST FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND NT GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING. THE AREA SLOWLY DRIES OUT MON AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE E...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILD IN FOR TUE. BLENDED IN HPC AND MEX FOR MOST TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE AND CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST...EARLY ON AND THEN A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS BEHIND THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR DOMINATES FORECAST. BRIEF LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG IN THE DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF WEST VIRGINIA SHOULD BE EVAPORATING AROUND 12Z. MARGINAL MOISTURE AT 850 MB HAS AREAS OF SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AT 4 TO 6 THSD FT...THEN DAYTIME HEATING MAINTAINING CU DURING THE AFTERNOON...SLOWING LIFTING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVAPORATING BY 02Z THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD FORM 17Z TODAY TO 00Z THURSDAY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA. SOME MVFR IN VALLEY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE 08Z TO 12Z THURSDAY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WITH BRIEF LOCAL IFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...KTB