961 FXUS63 KILX 290827 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 327 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 326 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION HAVE AFFECTED THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT IN A SYNOPTIC SETUP THAT SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT. ONE MORE MCS CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO WESTERN IL BEING FED BY 40-50 KT SW LLJ...AND SHORT RANGE CONVECTIVE MODELS SHOW THIS DIMINISHING OVER THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOOD WATCH SET TO EXPIRE AT 12Z AND THIS LOOKS GOOD AS MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE ENDING NEAR THAT TIME. NOT MUCH FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TIED TO THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND BETTER INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WELL WEST OVER KS AND MO. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED WARM SECTOR STORMS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MIGHT LINGER. OTHERWISE UNDER BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 80S. THE BRIEF BREAK FOR QUIET WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THURSDAY THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS EDGES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING HEIGHT FALLS AND INITIAL BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE CWA. THUS POPS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE WEST AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES NEXT WEEKEND. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS VERY ACTIVE WITH ALL INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THESE INCLUDES A 90KT UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE TROF IN DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW...HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WITH PWATS 150-200% OF NORMAL...AND AMPLE INSTABILITY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE CONVECTION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MCS/S. OF COURSE THE FINER SCALE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT BUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS PARTICULARLY INTERESTING WITH ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHIFTING OVERHEAD. DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEPENDING ON TIMING THIS WOULD BRING ONE FINAL SHOT AT SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. WILL UPDATE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /ESFILX/ TO HIGHLIGHT FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN THU-SAT FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED SOIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH NEEDED DRY WEATHER SUN-TUE. 25 && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1154 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013 PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL STORM IMPACTS... BECOMING GUSTY DURING PEAK DIURNAL MIXING WEDNESDAY. BAK && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ027>031- 036>038-040>043-047>051. && $$