415 FXUS62 KFFC 272347 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 740 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LATEST RUC 50H FIELD OVERLAID ON SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND ESTABLISHING A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. A MODIFIED 12Z FFC SOUNDING AND SUPPORTED BY LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATE AFTERNOON CAPES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 500-600 J/KG WITH A MODERATE MID LEVEL CAP. WEAK INSTABILITY... LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING SUGGEST THE GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE NORTH GA WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED THUNDER FOR NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AND ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE TUE-WED IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK. AS A RESULT... EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND NIL CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPS... LEANED SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY... ALTHO EXPECT THE SSE FLOW TO ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS NORTHWARD FROM ATLANTIC AND GULF TOWARD MORNING. THEN WENT WITH A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS AS A WARMING TREND CONTINUES IN RESPONSE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. 39 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE A MORE SUMMER- LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE BECOME CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO THE CWA THEREBY INCREASING HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE H5 RIDGE HOLDING FIRM OVER THE CWA...THIS RISK SHOULD BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO NORTH GA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 01/17 && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW/SCT MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND SCT TO BKN050 AFTER 14Z TUESDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE FOR MORNING STRATUS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ANY CHANGES. VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10KT TUESDAY. MVFR FOG MAY AFFECT MAINLY ATHENS AND MACON 10Z TO 14Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS 10-12Z TUE. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 59 87 60 87 / 10 10 10 5 ATLANTA 63 86 65 86 / 10 5 5 5 BLAIRSVILLE 58 83 57 82 / 20 20 20 5 CARTERSVILLE 59 87 62 88 / 10 10 10 5 COLUMBUS 63 88 64 89 / 5 5 5 5 GAINESVILLE 61 87 61 85 / 20 20 10 5 MACON 60 88 62 89 / 5 5 5 5 ROME 58 88 62 90 / 20 20 10 5 PEACHTREE CITY 57 86 59 86 / 10 5 5 5 VIDALIA 63 89 64 88 / 5 5 5 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...39 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...41