902 FXUS64 KBMX 271129 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 630 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 .UPDATE... AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY AND THANKS TO THOSE THAT HAVE SERVED AND OR CURRENTLY SERVING OUR NATION. NOW TO THE FORECAST...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE TO OUR NORTH TODAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST. STILL FEEL AS THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON... WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE NORTHEAST...WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE. AGAIN THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF NOT SEEING RAIN TODAY...BUT A FEW LUCKY AREAS MAY SEE A BRIEF SHOT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON TUESDAY AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AND LIKELY INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...SO WE WILL BE ON MORE OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH...SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE REALLY ROBUST ON BRING RAIN CHANCES IN EACH AFTERNOON...WHILE THE REST OF THE SHORT RANGE AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST AS THERE IS NO REAL BIG CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. I WOULD SAY THAT AS EACH DAY PASSES THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT INCREASES OVER THE AREA WILL LIKELY PROVIDE INCREASES IN THE ISOLATED SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THOSE CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SHORT RANGE MODELS FOR MORE EVIDENCE OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREAS OR ANY OTHER FOCUS MECHANISM EACH DAY. BY THE WEEKEND...A FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHEN IT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND IF IT CAN EVEN MAKE IT. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN IS VERY ROBUST AND BRINGS IT IN ON SUNDAY AND THEN HANGS OUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE EURO KEEPS IT NORTH THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SO WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE HERE...THE ONE SURE THING IS THAT THERE WILL BE ADDED MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR THOSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUMMER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE EXTENDED. OTHERWISE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY AND LOWS WARMING A TOUCH EACH NIGHT. 16 && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF DISCUSSION. FOG WILL PRODUCE LIFR CONDS AT KTOI THRU 13Z...BUT THE FOG IS SHALLOW AND SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DESPITE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY DRY CONDS THROUGHOUT THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR STRATUS FORMATION TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS POSSIBLY REACHING KTCL AFTER 10Z. 58/ROSE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GADSDEN 86 59 88 61 88 / 10 10 10 10 10 ANNISTON 85 61 87 61 87 / 10 10 10 10 10 BIRMINGHAM 86 63 88 66 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 TUSCALOOSA 88 63 90 65 89 / 10 0 0 10 10 CALERA 86 64 88 64 89 / 10 0 10 10 10 AUBURN 86 64 88 64 88 / 0 0 10 10 10 MONTGOMERY 89 64 91 64 92 / 10 0 10 10 10 TROY 88 61 90 61 90 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$