744 FXUS64 KLZK 262341 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 641 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013 .AVIATION... MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM INITIALLY IS DEVELOPMENT OF NEW TS BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 02Z. MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER STORMS...AND NEW STORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING OFF ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. DO BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND 4 THSD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE. INCLUDED SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE MON FOR THE AIRPORTS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A MOISTURE GRADIENT CONTINUING TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS ACTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ROSE AT A GOOD CLIP...BUT INCREASED CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY FROM DEVELOPING PRECIP...HAS LARGELY PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER LOSING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE REGION. BEYOND THAT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY...AS SURFACE RIDGING STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS...AND THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME BY LATE WEDNESDAY... AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS A BIT EASTWARD AND ALLOWS THE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IN THE PLAINS TO MOVE CLOSER. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EAST COAST INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PLAINS THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE INFLUENCING THE ARKANSAS WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... CENTERED OVER THE EAST COAST. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTH AND WEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 64 85 66 85 / 30 20 10 10 CAMDEN AR 64 88 67 87 / 40 10 10 10 HARRISON AR 61 82 65 83 / 20 20 10 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 65 86 67 85 / 40 10 10 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 65 86 68 86 / 40 10 10 10 MONTICELLO AR 66 86 67 86 / 40 10 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 64 85 67 85 / 40 10 10 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 63 83 65 85 / 20 20 10 10 NEWPORT AR 64 85 67 85 / 20 20 10 10 PINE BLUFF AR 66 85 66 86 / 40 10 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 85 65 85 / 30 10 10 10 SEARCY AR 64 85 65 85 / 40 10 10 10 STUTTGART AR 65 84 67 86 / 40 10 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...28