775 
FXUS64 KBMX 261120
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
620 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THIS FORECAST...IS WHERE CAN WE FIND ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO GET SOME RAIN IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL BE ON TOP OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TO THE
AREA FOR THE TIME BEING. AT THE SAME TIME THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO WE WILL SEE SOME MOISTURE BEGIN
TO WORK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE EVEN
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THAT PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP. THE MOST CONFIDENCE FOR THE FOG WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA...BUT WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED FOR
ALL LOCATIONS AFTER 3 AM MONDAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH. 

NOW THE QUESTION HERE IS WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL
SEE ANY RAIN AT ALL ON MONDAY. A FEW MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APEX OF THE RIDGE
AND SLIDING INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PROBLEM IS THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLIDING INTO A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE AND WITH THE
DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...IT WILL BE HARD TO SUSTAIN ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LIFT TO GENERATE ACCUMULATING SHOWERS. SO WILL LEAVE
THE FORECAST DRY AS THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SUPPORT THIS AND KEEP
ANY RAINFALL NORTH OR WEST OF THE AREA...WITH CLOUD COVER BEING
THE ONLY IMPACT FOR NOW. 

RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ON TUESDAY AND HANGS OUT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND WITH AN
APPROACHING FRONT TO GENERATE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS SO
INCLUDED LOW POPS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY
MUNDANE FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. 

16

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS MORE
TO THE EAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. WANT TO LET FUTURE TAF
UPDATES TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS POSSIBILITY...AND SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED MENTION OF FOG AT ANY SITE YET.

77/GLEASON

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. 

&&

$$