943 FXUS64 KMEG 231728 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1228 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/ DISCUSSION... SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. A COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE PLEASANT ACROSS THE REGION. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE SOME MORNING WORDING BUT NO BIG CHANGES ARE NEEDED. ARS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/ DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM PARIS TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AND INTO EAST ARKANSAS. AS OF 4 AM CDT...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST. SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HOWEVER...THINK MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE MID SOUTH AND LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF I-40 AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO SATURDAY. LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. SEVERAL ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE MID SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION AS GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A RIDGE BUILDING IN QUICKER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF. NONETHELESS...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT AND THE SUBSEQUENT BUILDING RIDGE...DECIDED TO ADD MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO APPROACHING 90 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. CJC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION JUST EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK AND FAVORABLE MCS ZONE TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALONG A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHED FROM OKLAHOMA SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION TO OUR WEST MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SOME MID LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT KMKL BEFORE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AT ALL SITES...STRONGEST TO THE NORTH AT KJBR AND KMKL. A REINFORCING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KTS OR GREATER OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS SUBSIDING IN INTENSITY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. JLH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 57 74 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 MKL 51 73 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 JBR 52 73 49 77 / 0 0 0 10 TUP 57 76 47 81 / 10 0 0 0 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$