003 
FXUS63 KEAX 221125
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 AM CDT Wed May 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

The upper-level low will pass just to the north of the forecast area 
this afternoon as it tracks to the east southeast. This close 
proximity may lead to a few showers across northern and northeastern 
Missouri this afternoon. These should be mainly diurnally driven so 
think the best chances will be during the afternoon with dissipation
around 00Z or so.

A cool and dry surface ridge will build into the region Thursday and
with the upper storm exiting to the east and shortwave ridging aloft,
we should see quiet and comfortable weather. Highs should range from
the upper 60s to the lower 70s with humidity in the 40 to 50 percent
range.

For Friday and especially Friday night, chances for precipitation 
will increase. At the surface, the high pressure center will be 
sliding off into the Great Lakes. This will eventually turn our 
winds to the southeast but trajectories for our area will basically 
be recirculating the cooler and drier air into the region. While it 
looks to a bit warmer, highs should still be in the mid 70s and 
humidity values of 40 to 50 percent will continue to result in 
comfortable weather conditions. Have kept a mention of low PoPs 
across eastern Kansas and far western Missouri for the daytime 
hours. But not very confident that precipitation will make it this 
far east through the day. The better chances will come over night 
when broad and moist isentropic ascent will spread across the area. 
Still the chances look to be less than 50 percent at this time. The 
best chances for storms should be more across central Kansas and 
Nebraska where the nose of the low-level jet will be focused.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

Warming temperatures and on-and-off thunderstorm chances will spread 
through the weekend and the early half of next week, as ridging 
gradually strengthens over the eastern Plains and a series of 
shortwave troughs push through the forecast area. Widespread severe 
weather is not anticipated through the end of the forecast period, 
due to a lack of low-level focus for convective initiation underneath 
the mid-level disturbances.

The best chances for precipitation will be on Saturday afternoon and 
into the evening as both the EC and GFS bring a fairly well-defined 
shortwave trough through northern or central Missouri; and then 
again on Sunday as trailing energy continues to push through the 
region. Afterward, lower-end precipitation chances will spread 
through the rest of the forecast period as a multitude of shortwave 
troughs head into the region; however, the timing and placement of 
these features becomes very uncertain as we move further into next 
week.

Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be near to slightly above normal 
as ridging begins to set up over the region; for Monday through 
Wednesday, highs will hit a few degrees above normal in the lower 
to mid 80's. Lows will also be several degrees above normal in the 
mid 60's throughout the long-range forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

Mainly VFR conditions are expected today; however, a few higher-end
MVFR ceilings between 2-3 kft may sneak into northwest Missouri this
morning. Although ceilings will remain broken to overcast for much of
the forecast period, bases should rise above 3 kft by 18z throughout
the region. Winds will remain out of the west northwest today at 8 to
12 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin