073 FXUS63 KDDC 220900 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 400 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013 ...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013 UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE "MAY LIKE" DURING THE AFTERNOON RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THERE WILL BE RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH BASED WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE WARMEST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH THOUGH. THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BE LIFTING EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT A WIND MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL HAVE A SURFACE RESPONSE THAT WILL BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA BY TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AND WITH AN UPSLOPE TRAJECTORY STRATUS MAY VERY WELL DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE WHAT THEY ARE THIS MORNING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013 A PERIOD OF QUIESCENT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE. CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NEW MEXICO MOVES EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST, AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDINESS AGAIN TODAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING, AND THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES AT H7 ARE CONTINUING TO COOL, AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE NEARLY ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THERE SHOULD BE FEW IF ANY HIGH BASED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN EASTERN UTAH WILL DROP INTO NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK WITH THE MINOR TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS TO HAVE SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AND A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS MAY SPREAD FROM COLORADO INTO MORTON COUNTY BEFORE DYING THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE INVASION OF COOLER AIR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER WESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. DEW POINTS IN THE 30S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AS THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR 130W CLOSES OFF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE A LOBE OF THE POLAR VORTEX NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL DIG SOUTH TO JAMES BAY WEDNESDAY, AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY, AND ANOTHER DAY OF MILD, QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED IN WESTERN KANSAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013 NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. THE BASE OF A SMALL S/WV TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE ORIGINAL UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SWING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SATELLITE IMAGES DOE SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE. SURFACE WINDS IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS PRESSURES LOWER TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST OR NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 80 51 73 58 / 0 10 20 40 GCK 80 50 72 58 / 0 10 20 30 EHA 83 54 78 59 / 10 10 30 30 LBL 83 54 75 60 / 10 10 30 30 HYS 74 47 71 56 / 0 10 20 40 P28 80 54 73 59 / 0 10 20 30 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HUTTON LONG TERM...GERARD AVIATION...HUTTON