256 FXUS64 KTSA 211143 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 643 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AT THE ARKANSAS TAF SITES AND ALSO AT KMLC TODAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE DURING THIS ACTIVITY. KTUL AND KRVS MAY ALSO SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING EXCEPT AT KFYV AND KXNA WHERE SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/ DISCUSSION... CORRECTED TO REFLECT CANCELLATION OF FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE COUNTIES NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44. CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE ELEVATED THUNDER FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... RATHER ACTIVE AT 930Z. COOL FRONT FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO LOW IN WEST TEXAS. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SLOW COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION WILL PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN AND THUNDER FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA..AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE INCLUSION OF CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES. THUNDER THREAT FINALLY ENDS THIS EVENING AS H5 TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MINIMAL POP RETAINED FROM EARLIER FORECAST FOR MOIST FLOW WORKING UNDER H5 RIDGE THURSDAY. ECMWF FORECAST WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WITH PRECIP. GFS DRY. LEANED WITH ECMWF OUTCOME FOR CHANCE POPS. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ058-OKZ062-OKZ063- OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072- OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076. AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010- ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029. && $$ AVIATION...05