244 FXUS62 KMHX 201905 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 305 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY REACHED PORTIONS OF OUR CENTRAL CWA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT ARE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD...ARE MOVING NORTH FROM WEST OF THE WILMINGTON AREA. WHILE THE AREA CONTINUES IN AN AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8 INCHES...THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT HAS REMAINED NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION...PREVENTED A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES INDICATE INCREASED 300 MB DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...SO THINK ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THIS REGION. THINK THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST AREAS WILL HAVE LESS COVERAGE AND HAVE LEFT THEIR POPS RIGHT AROUND 50 PCT. DID LEAVE ENHANCED WORDING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES IN ALL OF THE ZONES GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. TSTMS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH MIN VALUES IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AS OF 250 PM MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST A 30 TO 40 PCT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AREAS THAT CAN GET SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1248 PM MON...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES LATE IN THE WEEK...EXCEPT THE ECMWF 5H FEATURES DEEPER AS IT CLOSES AN UPPER LOW OFF OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH BERMUDA HIGH AT THE SURFACE WILL START THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE...THERE IS A WEAKNESS OVER FLORIDA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRINT OUT LOW POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF STATE ON WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH THAT...BUT WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOWEST POPS OF THE WEEK. FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. WILL START TO SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWING OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY AND PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL HAVE ALL PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. GOOD DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM MONDAY...DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE DUE TO QUESTIONABLE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THE 4 TAF SITES SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW LOWER CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL FORECAST THIS ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOG. WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT CERTAINLY COULD GO LOWER IF ANY DECOUPLING OCCURS LATE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1255 PM MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE CIRCLES AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GOOD DRYING SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SSW/SW WINDS CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND 2 TO 4 FEET TO THE SOUTH. SEE NO REASON FOR MUCH TO CHANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OR INTO TUESDAY. WINDS/SEAS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE IN CONVECTION ONCE IT REACHES THE COAST LATER ON THIS EVENING. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1259 PM MON...SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE ENOUGH WITH THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO KEEP SPEEDS BELOW SCA. HOWEVER SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA IN THE OUTER WATERS OF THE CENTRAL LEGS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT INTO SATURDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...CGG AVIATION...CGG/CTC MARINE...CGG/CTC