709 FXUS64 KTSA 190854 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 354 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 .DISCUSSION... WELL-ADVERTISED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS LATER TODAY AS A 120 KT JET ANALYZED OVER NRN CA/SRN OR AT 00Z TRANSLATES SEWRD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. ATTENDANT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. LATEST ANALYSES INDICATE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. DRY LINE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST WITH THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING ON IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS IT WILL MIX FURTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NWRN PORTIONS OF ERN OK AFTER 5 PM AS CAP KEEPS SFC-BASED STORMS AT BAY UNTIL RATHER LATE. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE OVER ERN OK WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3-4K J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ENSURE RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALLS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY INCREASES THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN OK. ALL MODELS HINT THAT CAP WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SRN PORTION OF THE REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NERN OK AND FAR NWRN AR. SETUP WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR ON MONDAY WITH DRY LINE INITIATING STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHT'S STORMS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY WHERE EVER IT SETTLES. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME FLOODING BECOMING POSSIBLE. MODELS SUGGEST THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FINALLY PROGRESSING EWRD. HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUING. ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE WRN CONUS MID WEEK RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN. HEIGHTS BUILD SLOWLY OVER THE PLAINS AND LEE SFC TROUGH STRENGTHENS ALLOWING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO RETURN BACK TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. LOW POPS AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS WERE FORECAST WITH THIS EXPECTED PATTERN THU-SAT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 69 84 67 / 30 70 50 80 FSM 91 69 87 69 / 10 40 30 70 MLC 88 72 85 70 / 20 20 20 70 BVO 88 69 83 64 / 40 80 60 80 FYV 86 67 83 68 / 10 60 30 80 BYV 87 66 82 67 / 10 70 30 80 MKO 88 68 85 68 / 20 50 30 80 MIO 88 69 83 66 / 20 80 50 80 F10 87 69 85 69 / 20 50 40 70 HHW 88 70 86 71 / 10 20 20 60 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....69