223 
FXUS64 KMEG 152038
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.DISCUSSION...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
OKLAHOMA AT MIDAFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WAS QUITE ORGANIZED...
HELPING TO SUSTAIN A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW HAD STREAMED
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS TO THE
OZARK PLATEAU BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
WEAKER AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME INSOLATION... THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY. 

WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW NEARLY STALLED UNDER A BROAD
UPPER HEIGHT RIDGE...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE SCATTERED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE TN VALLEY AND
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LOWER 90S TEMPS TO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT OFF TO APPALACHIA BY MONDAY...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LIFT EAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS TROF AXIS PASSAGE MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND IN THE KJBR AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  65  83  67  83 /  20  30  30  30 
MKL  61  80  63  80 /  20  30  30  30 
JBR  64  78  63  82 /  30  40  30  30 
TUP  61  84  65  84 /  10  20  30  30 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$