025 
FXUS64 KMRX 131832
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
232 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER 
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AS DEEP 
UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS LATE IN THE SPRING SHIFTS INTO THE NE STATES 
TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES 
UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALSO ACROSS MUCH 
OF SW VA. MODELS HINTING AT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS COMING IN AFTER 
ABOUT 6Z WHICH COULD AFFECT FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT. ONLY 
A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NE TN...SW VA AND EXTREME EASTERN MOUNTAIN 
VALLEYS SHOULD DECOUPLE ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 
AND UPPER 30S. THINK THERE WILL BE EVEN LESS AREA AFFECTED BY FROST 
TONIGHT SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BUT KEEP IT IN THE 
WORDING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

GENERALLY HAVE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN THE NORMALLY 
COLD SPOTS TONIGHT AND UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMER ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST WITH GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW WARMING 
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS EXPECTED HIGHS. THE 
COOLER MET GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS OF SW VA TO NEAR 80 AT CHA. 

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE AND 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT.  MODELS SHOW INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END 
OF THE PERIOD.  MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE DETAILS...BUT A BROAD AND 
SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE AREA...THEN PERHAPS 
SOME BRIEF RIDGING SUNDAY AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH 
AND COLD FRONT THAT MAY BE APPROACHING BY MONDAY.  GIVEN THE 
UNCERTAINTY OF ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURES BUT WITH THE INCREASED 
MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME 
FRAME.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY IN THE 
PERIOD...BUT FALLS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE 
END OF THE PERIOD.  


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             45  81  58  86  60 /   0   0   0  10  10 
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  44  79  59  85  61 /   0   0   0  10  10 
OAK RIDGE, TN                       43  79  57  86  60 /   0   0   0  10  10 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              36  75  51  84  55 /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TD/LW