531 
FXUS64 KOHX 131742
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVAITION FORECAST


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AS BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THIS DIRECTION.
EXPECT WIND GUSTS AFTER 15Z ON TUESDAY ON THE ORDER OF 16 TO 18
KNOTS AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT IN REPONSE TO
SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

BOYD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/ 

UPDATE...

AFTER A RECORD COLD MORNING ACROSS THE MID STATE...TEMPERATURES
ARE WARMING RAPIDLY WITH MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER
50S AND 60S. A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH 12Z OHX SOUNDING
SHOWING A PWAT OF ONLY 0.33 INCHES...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
AFFECT WESTERN ZONES TODAY AND SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY
ALSO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY COVER BASED
ON LATEST OBS...BUT REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/ 

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF'S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HRS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE CHILLY.
2 AM READINGS WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MUCH OF MID
TN...WITH MID 30S FOR THE PLATEAU REGION. TRENDS ARE STILL ON
TRACK FOR POSSIBLE RECORD SETTING LOWS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
AREAS OF FROST. THE FROST ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 8
AM.

THIS FROSTY MORNING...ALONG WITH THE CHILLY WX PATTERN THAT MID
TN HAS EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MAY...WILL SEEM LIKE A DISTANT
MEMORY BY MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER WELL
TODAY UNDER STRONG MID MAY SUNSHINE. RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS AND
BACKING WIND FLOW WILL BRING CONTINUED WARMING THROUGH
MIDWEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...A STRONG RIDGE COUPLED WITH WEST
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S. THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND WIND PATTERN OFTEN BRINGS STRONG WARMUPS...SO IT
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKING FOR A FEW SPOTS TO APPROACH 90 ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY..A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH GENERALLY
LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS...AND MILDER LOWS AROUND 60. 

INTO THE WEEKEND...A RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD AGAIN. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS...BUT THE RIDGE MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP OFF ALL
DEEP CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01