962 FXUS63 KFGF 130433 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE PERIOD. WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN FA HOWEVER WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT EXPECT RETURNS ARE MID CLOUD OR MAYBE SOME VIRGA. MAINTAINED LOW POPS TOWARDS MORNING HOWEVER CONFIDENCE LOW. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 ONLY CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO INCREASE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WEST. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS TEMPERATURE DROP SLOWING UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. SOME WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT AT THIS POINT JUST MID LEVEL CLOUDS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED. UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 CI BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER RIDGE AND SPREADING ACROSS FA FROM N-S. ADVANCING CLOUDS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ENSURE MOST OF FA WILL BE OUT OF ANY FROST THREAT. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHICH WILL BE THE LAST AREA TO SEE ABOVE CONDITIONS. ALL THIS COVERED IN CURRENT FORECAST SO NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PCPN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND THEN THE WARMUP STARTING ON MON. WILL STICK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. FOR THIS EVENING AM EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS TO SPREAD INTO THE FA ALONG WITH SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP A LITTLE. WINDS WILL TAKE LONGEST TO PICK UP IN THE EAST AND STUCK WITH COOLEST LOWS THERE. PCPN CHANCES SEEM TO BE A LITTLE DELAYED WITH THIS MODEL RUN. GENERALLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR WARM ADVECTION RELATED SHOWERS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN REALLY ONLY IN THE NORTHWEST FA. GEM AND NAM REALLY DO NOT DEVELOP MUCH UNTIL THE WARM ADVECTION MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MN MON MORNING. GFS HAS THE MOST PCPN AND ECMWF KEEPS IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MN. ALL SAID NOT MUCH PCPN EITHER WAY WITH THE DRY LOW LAYERS TO OVERCOME. MONDAY LOOKS VERY WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER TEENS WEST OF THE RED RIVER. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON WOULD GIVE PORTIONS OF THE AREA A WEST THEN NW WIND WHICH WOULD HELP WARM TEMPS EVEN MORE. NEXT SFC LOW STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA MON NIGHT SPREADING MORE WARM ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 THIS SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUE. SHOULD BE VERY MILD UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN BY AFTERNOON. PRETTY STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE. THINK THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE KDVL REGION POSSIBLY DOWN THRU BARNES COUNTY COULD SEE SOME SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40 MPH FOR A WHILE TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUE NIGHT. STILL HAVE ICE ON DEVILS LAKE AS WELL. THIS ICE MAY GO OUT DURING THE WARM DAYS MON OR TUE. IF NOT THESE STRONG WEST/NW WINDS COULD CAUSE AN ICE SURGE ON THE EAST/SE SHORES AROUND THE LAKE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA. REST OF AREA WILL ALSO SEE STRONG WINDS BUT THINK AT THIS POINT THEY SHOULD BE IN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT WED LOOKS A LITTLE COOLER BUT DRY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAK RIDGING WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (AND ACTIVE WEATHER). THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS BRINGING IN THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION BEGINS THE SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY BE TOO SOON. HOWEVER...THE TREND APPEARS ON TRACK AND WILL ADJUST TIMING WHEN MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEAR NORMAL VALUES...MAYBE A BIT COOLER NEXT WEEKEND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 MAINTAINED VFR CIGS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH. ANY SHRA LIKELY TO BE EAST OF VALLEY MID MORNING. WINDS TO SWITCH SE TO NW DURING THE DAY FROM W-E. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES FOR A PERIOD ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RH WILL FALL TO AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY LOWER VALUES POSSIBLE. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO PARTS OF NW/WC MN ON TUESDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP OVER 30 MPH ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN...AND 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS NW/WC MN. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LOW RH WILL GET. 12Z MODELS INDICATE MID 50S DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DRIER WORKS ITS WAY IN. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS THOUGH...NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT DEWPOINTS QUITE THAT HIGH WILL BE ACHIEVED. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MIXED LAYER INCREASING TO ABOVE 800 MB...HELPING TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR DOWNWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THUS...RH BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT IS EXPECTED...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER VALUES IF MORE MOISTURE MIXES OUT OF THE SFC LAYER THAN MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE RED RIVER AT EAST GRAND FORKS...OSLO...DRAYTON AND PEMBINA. RIVER STAGES AT DRAYTON AND PEMBINA ARE CONTINUING A SLOW RECESSION...WITH STAGES AT EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO FALLING MORE RAPIDLY. OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER POINTS ON THE MAINSTEM RED AND ON THE ND/MN TRIBUTARIES SHOW RECEDING OR NEARLY STEADY LEVELS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VOELKER SHORT TERM...GODON LONG TERM...TG AVIATION...VOELKER FIRE WEATHER...MAKOWSKI HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI