773 FXUS64 KLZK 121701 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1201 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 .AVIATION... GUSTY NE SFC FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SLY AFTER 12Z ACROSS MOST SITES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. 55 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/ DISCUSSION... OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN OVER AR WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. KLZK SOUNDING IS QUITE DRY WITH A NW TO N WIND FLOW. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS MOVING OVER KS AT THIS TIME AND WILL BRING SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TO WESTERN TO CENTRAL AR...BUT DO EXPECT SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO THIN AS THEY MOVE SE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...BUT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE OVER AR...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA TODAY. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. (59) PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/ AVIATION... A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. WINDS IN MOST AREAS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. (46) SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING INTO THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TODAY...BUT THE INFLUX OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES VERSUS SATURDAY. A WARM UP WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE AND SOUTH WINDS RESUME. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY...AND LOW TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY/S COOLER TEMPS WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM TEXAS TUE NIGHT AND WED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN WESTERN ARKANSAS NOTABLY ON WED AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. BY WED EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE STATE. AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHAT...IF ANY...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS WITH THIS INCOMING SYSTEM. WILL JUST GO WITH GENERIC MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START WITH A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ONCE THE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST...THERE WILL BE RIDGING ALOFT AND DRY/WARM CONDITIONS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEKEND. AT/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 68 46 76 57 / 0 10 0 0 CAMDEN AR 73 47 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 HARRISON AR 66 46 76 57 / 0 10 0 0 HOT SPRINGS AR 72 49 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 LITTLE ROCK AR 71 50 78 58 / 0 10 0 0 MONTICELLO AR 71 49 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 MOUNT IDA AR 74 48 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 44 76 56 / 0 10 0 0 NEWPORT AR 68 47 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 PINE BLUFF AR 70 49 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 RUSSELLVILLE AR 72 47 80 56 / 0 10 0 0 SEARCY AR 69 47 77 55 / 0 10 0 0 STUTTGART AR 69 50 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...99