333 
FXUS63 KJKL 102342
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
742 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 542 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013

UPDATED NDFD FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KY...SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN TN AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NEED TO REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013

THE LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS EVENING ANOTHER SWATH OF SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY. THEY IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF THE
ADDITIONAL RAIN THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...SO CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NO RAIN...HOWEVER IT IS
REALLY HARD TO PICK OUT EXACTLY WHICH HOURS WILL BE DRY AND WHERE.
THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDING ARE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT
PUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THEY WILL
BE PRETTY TAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AS
COOLER AIR STARTS TO POUR INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE RIDGING DOMINATES OUT WEST. THE PATTERN THEN
FLATTENS OUT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE DIFFERENCES
IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS CONTINUING TO SHOW UP BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS. 

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AT AROUND 60 DEGREES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE COOLEST READINGS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING...WITH LOW TO MID 30S EXPECTED FOR THE MORE SHELTERED 
VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW
MORE CLOUDS AS WELL...SO STAYED A BIT ABOVE THE COOLEST MOS.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN ENSUE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS RECOVERING TO AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
SLOWER...ALTHOUGH IT IS ALSO A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED THEN IT HAD SHOWED
IN THE 12Z RUN YESTERDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY...AND THEN CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY...CLOSER TO THE BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. 
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA
AND CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL BEGIN THE
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AND THEN IFR. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP AS THE RAIN MOVES IN
WITH LIGHT FOG LINGERING BEHIND THE RAIN AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH CEILINGS
REMAINING MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SBH