756 
FXUS63 KPAH 101958
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
258 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

THE COLD FRONT HAS YET TO REALLY PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS OF
1930Z. A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS FOCUSED SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON A LINE FROM NEAR KPOF TO KMWA...BUT IT HAS ONLY
GENERATED SPORADIC LIGHTNING. LAPS INDICATES THAT THE MOST
UNSTABLE SURFACE AIRMASS IS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY...SO WOULD EXPECT THAT CONVECTION TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE KOWB AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

WILL TAKE THE EASY WAY OUT AND JUST MOVE AN AREA OF LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNSET...ALTHOUGH WITH THE
VERY SLOW SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...COULD SEE IT FALLING APART BEFORE REACHING THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...BUT THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THIS
EVENING...NOT CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL AROUND 06Z.

FOR SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR AGGRESSIVE TREND IN
BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND
SHALLOW...SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO MAKE QUICKER PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AREA. HAVE A BAND OF 20-40 POPS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL EVEN LINGER A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER WEST KENTUCKY INTO THE EVENING.

GOOD COLD...DRY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE CONSENSUS TAKES
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. SO.......LOWS IN THE 30S
AND AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST SEEM TO BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. HAVE LOOKED AT IT FOR 5 DAYS NOW AND THIS IS BY FAR THE
COOLEST THE MODELS HAVE GONE. HAVE LITTLE REASON TO NOT BELIEVE
IT AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) 
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SUNDAY. 
WE EXPECT LOWS AROUND 40 BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS WITH MONDAY 
THE COOLEST...SECOND DAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS USUALLY THE 
COOLEST AS A RULE OF THUMB. PATCHY FROST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT 
THIS TIME BUT WITH CURRENT PROJECTIONS WOULD BE VERY LIMITED AND NOT 
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANY REVISIONS. 
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH NEXT WEEK WHICH 
WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE NEXT 
STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER SW US AND DRIVE NE ACROSS THE 
PLAINS...REACHING THE HEARTLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. THE LAST COUPLE 
GFS RUNS TRY TO PHASE THIS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE 
NORTH...HOWEVER THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS 
THE LOW IN A LITTLE SLOWER BUT PAINTS QPF OVER THE AREA AS WELL JUST 
A LITTLE LATER. FOR NOW PLAN TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF AND 
HOLD PRECIP OFF UNTIL POSSIBLY THURSDAY AND MAY END UP HOLDING UNTIL 
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THAT SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSER WITH TIME. HOWEVER WILL 
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT PRODUCES AND COLLABORATE WITH 
SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR THE BEST FIT OR TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKS 
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013

GUIDANCE SEEMS VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. DO
NOT SEE WHY THERE WOULD BE ANY REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE FRONT HAS PASSED. WILL HAVE A
TEMPO FOR IFR SHOWERS AT KEVV AND KOWB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
A VCSH THROUGH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT OTHERWISE THE TAFS ARE
DRY.

LOOKING UPSTREAM CEILINGS ARE NEAR 1KFT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WOULD EXPECT IFR CEILINGS TO EVENTUALLY FILTER INTO KEVV AND KOWB
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AT KPAH AND KCGI. MOST GUIDANCE
DOES INDICATE IMPROVEMENT BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO DUE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...GENERALLY AFTER 00Z. SPEEDS
WILL BE UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS