540 
FXUS64 KTSA 090426
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SET TO AFFECT MOST OF THE 
AREA TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS TWO THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL USE TEMPOS TO COVER 
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER AT ALL AREA TAF SITES. LOWER MVFR 
CEILINGS ARE SET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT WED MAY 8 2013/ 

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING STRONG/SVR CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PRESS EASTWARD ALL THE WHILE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY
STABLE AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPED AIRMASS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN KS IS EXPECTED LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT
WITHIN LOW LEVEL JET AXIS...AND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WILL PUSH
TOWARD NE OK LATE TONIGHT WITHIN A ZONE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS SCENARIO WARRANTS INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES NOTABLY FOR NE OK OVERNIGHT AND A SHARP
SOUTHEASTWARD DROP OFF IN OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHANCES. SHOULD THE
LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY DEVELOP EVEN FURTHER SOUTHWARD THEN PRECIP
WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY AFTER SUNRISE. OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO APPEAR LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF MARGINAL DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SOURCE. SHOULD
ANY SVR WX DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT.

UPDATED FORECAST WILL PRIMARILY ADJUST POPS WITH OTHER ELEMENTS ON
TRACK. 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...10