999 
FXUS63 KFGF 072001
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
301 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2013

A WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW HAS CONTINUED TO ROTATE OVER SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND STAYED NEARLY STATIONARY. MOST OF THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS STAYED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF ABR'S CWA...BUT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO
DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SOME 250-500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. THIS SEEMS TO GO ALONG WITH
THE MODELS TREND OF SOME SCATTERED POPS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING. INCLUDED SOME 20-30 POPS IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THEN GO DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD STAY MAINLY
IN THE 40S.

TOMORROW...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE CWA...DOWN
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS THE COLD FRONT
COMES DOWN AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECENT LIFT DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA TOMORROW AND ONLY GET INTO THE 50S...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THAT SEE A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL STAY IN THE 60S. A
BIT OF PRECIP WILL LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING AROUND KDVL AND
TEMPS SHOULD FALL DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2013

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT AND REMAIN JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL HELP PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT
IT SEEMS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
NO FARTHER BY 00Z SATURDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH PRETTY CLOSELY
FOR TIMING. JUST HAVE LOW POPS FRIDAY MORNING BUT CHANCES SHOULD
BE GREATER IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS IN THE 60S BUT MAY HAVE TO
ADJUST IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH A BIT DIFFERENTLY.

FRI NIGHT-TUE...A SHORT WAVE IN THE 500MB FLOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT 
OF CANADA FRI NIGHT AND CLOSES OFF OVER WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z SAT. 
THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THU THE AREA WITH SUBZERO 850MB TEMPS 
FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS ALONG 
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING BUILD BACK INTO 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER THIS PASSES OFF TO THE EAST WHICH WILL 
SLOWLY BRING WARMING TEMPS BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS 
THIS RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BY MON THERE IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THAT 
TRACKS ACROSS CANADA AND PUSHES ANOTHER BOUNDARY THRU THE AREA. NOT 
REALLY EXCITED ABOUT PCPN CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE BUT SINCE THEY ARE 
LOW AND THEY WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST WILL LEAVE THEM AS IS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2013

MORE EXTENSIVE VFR CUMULUS SHIELD FORMED ACROSS THE EASTERN FA AND 
IS AFFECTING THE KBJI TAF SITE. OTHER TAF LOCATIONS ARE EITHER CLEAR 
OR HAVE JUST A FEW/SCATTERED CUMULUS. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH 
THIS EVENING WITH NOT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. COLD FRONT WILL 
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BRING A WIND SWITCH 
TO THE NORTH. NOT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER UP ALONG THE FRONT NOW SO 
STUCK WITH VFR CLOUDS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2013

IT WOULD APPEAR THE RED RIVER CREST IS MOVING THROUGH THE DRAYTON 
AREA THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RED AT DRAYTON WAS HOLDING JUST 
UNDER 40 FEET AND HAS SHOWN MINOR FLUCTUATIONS SINCE LAST EVENING. 
DOWNSTREAM OF DRAYTON RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH THE RED AT 
PEMBINA EXPECTED TO PEAR NEAR 47 FEET [46.5 TO 47.5] FRIDAY MAY 
10TH...THEN HOLD THERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AT WALHALLA AND NECHE RISES 
ARE FORECAST DUE TO EXTRA WATER COMING FROM THE WINDYGATES AREA. 

MINOR UPWARD FLUCTUATIONS WERE NOTED ON SOME OF THE RED BASIN 
TRIBUTARIES AS A RESULT OF THE PAST WEEKEND RAINFALL. HOWEVER THESE 
FLOWS WILL NOT IMPACT THE MAINSTEM RED.

AREAL FLOODING...KEPT THE FLOOD WARNING IN CAVALIER AND PEMBINA 
COUNTIES. THEY EXPIRE ON WEDNESDAY SO WILL REEVALUTE TOMORROW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON 
AVIATION...GODON 
HYDROLOGY...EWENS