431 FXUS64 KLCH 032329 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 629 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2013 .AVIATION...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TNITE AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY, SOMEWHAT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA CREATES A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. CAVOK. SWEENEY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2013/ DISCUSSION... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING NNW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WIND ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 21Z FOR ALL OF SE TX/C AND S LA...BUT EXTENDED IT FOR THE COASTAL SE TX/S LA THRU 00Z FOR WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIKEWISE...SCA FOR INLAND LAKES/BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS OUT 20 NM CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH THE GALE WARNING FOR THE 20-60NM ZONES THRU 1 PM. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING LINE ACROSS C AND SC LA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E THIS EVENING AS THE DEEP LAYER COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS SE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH SETTLES EASTWARD TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BECOMING L&V AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THIS COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (DEWPTS IN THE MID 30S) WILL LEAD TO RECORD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SAT MORNING. THIS WILL BREAK DAILY LOW TEMP RECORDS...AS WELL AS ALL TIME MAY RECORDS FALLING AS WELL. SEE CLIMATE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. IT IS MAY...AND THE SUN WILL DO GREAT RECOVERY IN TEMPS SAT AFTERNOON...EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 70S UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES WARMER FOR LOWS SUN MORNING. BY SUN...A SECONDARY BUT WEAKER HIGH WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES SE ACROSS AR/MS. LIKELY TO SEE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW GIVING SCT/BKN CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S. SLOW MODERATING TREND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MON THRU THU. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE REGION BY FRI. DML MARINE... STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 00Z FOR THE COASTAL LAKES/BAYS...AND 1 AM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING FOR TUESDAY. DML CLIMATE... ALL TIME MAY LOCATION FORECAST LOW RECORD LOW RECORD LOW ------------------------------------------------------------------- ALEXANDRIA LA 37 42 (2011) 38 ON 05/06/1954 BEAUMONT TX 42 45 (2011) 45 ON 05/04/2011 LAKE CHARLES, LA 41 46 (2011) 45 ON 05/03/1929 LAFAYETTE, LA 41 44 (1954) 42 ON 05/03/1929 NEW IBERIA, LA 42 43 (1954) 42 ON 05/12/1952 ------------------------------------------------------------------- && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 41 73 50 71 52 / 0 0 0 10 10 KBPT 42 74 52 73 53 / 0 0 0 10 10 KAEX 37 70 46 68 50 / 0 0 0 10 10 KLFT 41 72 49 69 51 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON. TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY. && $$