203 FXUS66 KLOX 030303 AAA AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 800 PM PDT THU MAY 2 2013 ...GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY... ...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CAUSE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ON SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL INTO MIDWEEK. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE SPRINGS FIRE IN CAMARILLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEST NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD APPROACHING THE CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY MOVE ASHORE THIS EVENING AND THEN SCOUR OUT OR MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP. THE LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST FOR THE DAY WITH BEACH LOCATIONS...LIKE PISMO BEACH...POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 80S. AND CENTRAL COAST INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY CLIMB TO RECORD HEAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LA/VENTURA COASTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE SANTA MONICA BAY WITH DENSE FOG TONIGHT. OTHERWISE THE LATEST HRRR WAS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND ONSHORE WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS WHILE THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL INLAND OVERNIGHT AND AS THE SEABREEZE DISSIPATES THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST. THE WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE INTERIOR COASTAL VALLEYS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY FOLLOWING THE HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRATION AT 6 PM THIS EVENING. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THOUGH LIKELY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND TO AT OR BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL APPROACH THROUGH SUNDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND BETWEEN SUITES THOUGH SKIES WILL LIKELY BECOME CLOUDY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A STABLE TYPE PATTERN WITH A ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE PAC NW AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SFO BAY AREA WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AND EXIT THROUGH THE SOLUTION TYPE FEATURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND A SECOND ONE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LIKELY RANGE 4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE EXTREME FIRE DANGER EXISTS. AS OF 730 PM...ONSHORE WINDS HAVE SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRINGS FIRE...HOWEVER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE OFFSHORE CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGHER RIDGETOPS OF THE BURN AREA. FURTHER INLAND...OFFSHORE WINDS AND BONE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN FIRMLY IN TACT...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER TODAY. THIS IS SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND...WITH LONG DURATIONS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES BEING OBSERVED. IN FACT...A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 1 PERCENT TODAY! BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REVERSE TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SPRINGS FIRE BURN AREA. AS OFFSHORE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN OFFSHORE WINDS. THE SANTA ANA WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WE SAW TODAY...HOWEVER GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BURN AREA BETWEEN 4 AM AND NOON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AT RIDGETOP LEVEL. AS WINDS REVERSE TO OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT...LOOKING FOR HUMIDITIES TO ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SPRINGS BURN AREA. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 DEGREES ALONG WITH LONG DURATIONS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REVERSE TO ONSHORE EARLIER ON FRIDAY...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 1 AND 2 PM ACROSS THE SPRINGS BURN AREA. THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND ACROSS MOST VALLEY AREAS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND VERY DRY FUELS HAS CREATED THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT FUEL CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH VALUES THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL FOR JULY OR AUGUST. && .AVIATION...02/2350Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALMOST ALL AIRFIELDS THROUGH FRI. EXCEPTION IS KSMX WHERE THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 05Z THEN CLEAR TO VFR BY 12Z. THERE IS ALSO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE LIFR CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT KSMX AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY E WINDS AT KWJF AND KPMD WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. KLAX...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI EVENING. KBUR...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU FRI. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX). WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...30 AVIATION...SIRARD SYNOPSIS...SETO FIRE...GOMBERG WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES