801 FXUS64 KMEG 290036 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 736 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2013 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2013/ UPDATE... UPDATED FOR ADDED CLOUD COVER AND PATCHY FOG. DISCUSSION... NEARLY STACKED 850 AND 500 MB TROUGH IS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE MIDSOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED BLANKET STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK. 12Z MODELS ARE A BIT FAST ON SHIFTING THE TROF EAST AND THEREFORE TOO EARLY ON CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY EVENING. HAVE PUSHED BACK TIMING...KEEPING A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH COUNTIES MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. JAB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2013/ DISCUSSION... RARE PATTERN THIS COMING WEEK FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. THE PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IS QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. ALSO...UPPER PATTERN DOES NOT MOVE MUCH AT END OF WEEK WHICH COULD PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR A LOCATION OR TWO. HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD HAVE SOME VERY NICE WEATHER. CLEAR SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THEN BY MID-WEEK...UPPER LOW NEAR GULF STARTS TO MERGE WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW BECOME STACKED BY THE END OF THE WEEK SO THE SURFACE LOW DOES NOT MOVE VERY MUCH. HOWEVER...ONE MODEL INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE EAST OF THE MID- SOUTH. OTHER PROBLEMS ARE THAT THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW ARE NOT CERTAIN. FORECAST GRIDS ARE FOR A GENERAL WET PATTERN AT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKS. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE HIGH TEMPERATURE MAY BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TLSJR && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE WRAP AROUND STRATOCUMULUS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY PERSIST WITHIN A BAND STRETCHING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SOUTH TO KMEM. THIS BAND IS MAINLY VFR CIGS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE EVENING. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AND LIKELY BECOME DENSE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. VLIFR TO LIFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR VSBYS RETURNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF MONDAY. JLH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 54 81 58 84 / 0 10 0 0 MKL 45 80 57 84 / 0 10 0 0 JBR 51 81 59 84 / 0 10 0 0 TUP 49 80 54 84 / 10 10 0 0 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$