140 FXUS62 KFFC 290000 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 800 PM EDT SUN APR 28 2013 .UPDATE... LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COOL AIR WEDGE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING. RAIN CONTINUES TO REINFORCE THE WEDGE THIS EVENING...AND DON'T EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE SE UNTIL TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA...BUT WHEN THEY RUN INTO THE WEDGE...THE BECOME ELEVATED AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STRATIFORM. HAVE REDUCED THE THUNDER WORDING WITHIN THE WEDGE FOR OVERNIGHT. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GA...STORMS REMAIN SURFACE BASED. SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...STORMS SOUTH OF THE WEDGE COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTHERN GA. MPE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS NORTH GA...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES. ACROSS THE METRO ATLANTA AREA AND SOUTHWARD...UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF HAS FALLEN. DO THINK THE PRIMARY AXIS FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING. WILL LET THE FF WATCH EXPIRE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT SUN APR 28 2013/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE ACTIVE REGION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SPARKING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH... CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL MS...ACROSS AL AND INTO NORTH AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA. FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A MAIN CONCERN ACROSS NORTH GA AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN POSTED FOR CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES DUE TO INUNDATED ROADWAYS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NORTH GA THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS ARE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ATLANTA AND INTO CENTRAL GA WHERE DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD. ONE DISCRETE STORM HAS PRODUCED LARGE HAIL IN THE LA GRANGE AREA... AND ANOTHER FURTHER EAST IS SHOWING STRONG ROTATION. THE MAIN CONCERNS FROM DISCRETE CELLS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO THROUGH EARLY EVENING... ESPECIALLY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 300+ HELICITY DURING DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE... EXPECT THE FLOOD AND SEVERE THREAT TO GREATLY DIMINISH BY 8-9 PM THIS EVENING AS THE STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT SLIPS FURTHER EAST AND WE CONTINUE TO LOSS DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO BE SLOW PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA... SO WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASING OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...BEFORE ENDING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS... HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MAV AND MET BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEASONABLE COOLER LOWS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 39 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE SHOW RAIN CHANCES SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. /39 PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2013/ LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN INFLUENCING FEATURES THROUGHOUT LONG TERM. AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO ADVECT SOME GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA STARTING LATE TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RESULT IN A HYBRID CAD WEDGE IMPINGING UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO PRIMARILY LIMIT INSTABILITY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...SO HAVE KEPT HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND TRENDED LOWER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO PUSH AN OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY SATURDAY SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. FOR NOW GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT...THOUGH ANY SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SERVE TO PROVIDE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE PRECIP CHANCE. BAKER AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO GO LIFR LATER THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE. CURRENTLY...DO THINK OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH OF ATL ARE PROVIDING SOME OUTFLOW. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH BACK TO THE NE SHORTLY. SINCE THE RAINFALL IS REINFORCING THE WEDGE...WINDS SHOULD STAY E ALL NIGHT. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 59 75 54 79 / 70 50 10 10 ATLANTA 59 76 58 80 / 70 40 10 10 BLAIRSVILLE 53 72 52 74 / 50 40 10 10 CARTERSVILLE 57 76 54 82 / 60 40 10 10 COLUMBUS 60 79 58 81 / 80 40 10 20 GAINESVILLE 57 74 56 79 / 60 40 10 10 MACON 61 77 56 82 / 100 50 20 10 ROME 56 76 51 83 / 50 20 5 10 PEACHTREE CITY 57 76 51 80 / 70 40 10 10 VIDALIA 63 78 60 81 / 100 60 30 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$