905 FXUS64 KMEG 230818 AFDMEG AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 318 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2013 .DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM QUINCY ILLINOIS TO TULSA OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THIS MORNING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS STRATUS CLOUDS STREAM UP FROM THE GULF COAST THANKS TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP AROUND NOON TIME. AFTER A MILD START...HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS MAINLY AFTER 3-4 PM AS THE FRONT SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT...FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH. MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE RAIN TO STAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH AT LEAST 9-10 PM. ANY THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND LEADING EDGE SHOULD BE IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT AND BY AFTERNOON MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FROST DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AS THE WINDS DIE OFF. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A TAD WARMER AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. EXPECT READINGS IN THE 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS IN REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES. THE GFS BRINGS OFF AN ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE MODEL ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z AND NEW 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER. THE MODEL KEEPS A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND MUCH WARMER THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH AS IS WHICH LEANS TOWARD A ECMWF SOLUTION. KRM && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SUNRISE PRODUCING IFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL RETURN BACK TO VFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING AT KJBR BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT KJBR BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. ARS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 76 51 61 43 / 10 80 50 10 MKL 75 51 58 36 / 10 80 60 10 JBR 74 47 60 37 / 30 90 30 10 TUP 78 58 65 41 / 10 50 70 10 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$