103 
FXUS62 KMLB 221356
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT MON APR 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...WEAK SFC LOW OFFSHORE FROM THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST ALONG 
THE MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS 
AFTERNOON ALLOWING STRONGER NNE/NE WINDS TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS 
THE NRN MARINE WATERS AND THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGER UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE AND MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT 
AXIS NEAR THE FL EAST COAST THIS MORNING WILL ALSO PUSH OFFSHORE 
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RESIDUAL DEEP MOISTURE...COLD MID LVL 
TEMPS AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALLOW SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO 
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS/
STORMS SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA 
INCLUDING THE TREASURE COAST...ALONG AND NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY 
THAT WILL BE TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. MADE SOME SLIGHT 
POP/WEATHER/ WIND FCST UPDATES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT 
RANGE MODELS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN VOLUSIA COUNTY 
TO THE LWR-MID 80S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN STRATUS BLO 1 KFT ACROSS NRN TERMINALS SHOULD BREAK 
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FROM 15Z-17Z. REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHRA/ISOLD 
TSRA EXPECTED 18Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY S OF A LINE FROM 
KMCO-KTIX WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING 
CONVERGENCE. STRONGER NE WINDS EXPECTED AT KDAB THIS AFTERNOON WITH 
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS 21Z-02Z. 

&& 

.MARINE...NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE NRN 
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN 
WATERS TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN
THE SE ATLC COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT ACROSS THE NRN OFFSHORE 
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN WATERS BY 
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS 
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO 
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO 
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS 
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY 
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK