688 FXUS63 KDDC 150525 AAA AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 1225 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013 ...UPDATED FOR AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013 SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, PRECIP CHANCES ARE UNLIKELY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH FILTERS SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AS DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY DOWN INTO THE 30S(F) WITH A FEW LOWER TO MID 40S(F) POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FOR MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP BRING ABOUT A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 5C ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) AND 60S(F) MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 70F POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SUN APR 14 2013 LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IMPROVING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE BASED ON THE NAM BUFR SOUNDING WILL INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 3000FT BY 15Z TUESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS MOISTURE LAYER WILL IMPROVE THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE EARLY TUESDAY. WILL THEN CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LIFT AND MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. IN ADDITION THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE 925 TO 850MB LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A RAIN/DRIZZLE EVENT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THERE STILL IS A CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 32 DEGREES TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY, AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SOUTH. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 925MB TO 850MB MEAN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. WINDY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THE CURRENT GRIDS ALREADY HAS A MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR RETURNING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE MOSGUIDE AND CONSMOS AND FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 40S ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY FRIDAY HOWEVER A NORTHWESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON APR 15 2013 EXPECT LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH SOME BKN-0VC050 CIGS TILL 20-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VIRGA IS POSSIBLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 36 48 33 44 / 10 20 40 40 GCK 34 47 32 42 / 10 20 30 30 EHA 36 54 35 46 / 10 10 30 30 LBL 37 52 37 46 / 10 10 30 30 HYS 35 45 33 42 / 10 20 50 50 P28 43 52 42 50 / 10 20 40 50 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON LONG TERM...BURGERT AVIATION...KRUSE