036 FXUS64 KCRP 131135 AAA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 635 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2013 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION SECTION BELOW. && .AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS BELOW 2KFT HAVE DEVELOP OUT WEST THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z. FOR THE REST OF SOUTH TEXAS...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS AND HAVE ALLOWED VSBYS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER AT KVCT TO 5SM. EXPECTING THIS TO PERSIST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KALI AND KCRP BRIEFLY. VFR CONDITIONS THEN REGION TO ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS AFTER 15Z WITH SOUTHEAST WIND SPEEDS INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY TO AROUND 20KTS. CLOUD DECK WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN LOWER AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. FORECAST MODELS THEN SHOW MVFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS AROUND 09Z FOR MANY LOCATIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME EXACTLY HOW LOW THE CLOUD DECK WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2013/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...500MB TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE WEST AND HAS BROUGHT AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES ONLY APPROACHING 1 TO 1.25 INCH. WITH THAT SAID...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION AND BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF PROG AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACRS THE NRN PLAINS THEN LIFT NEWD WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS/TX WED/THU. THUS EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SECOND SYSTEM. SCA CONDITIONS PSBL DRG ONSHORE FLOW LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MSTR EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SFC DEW POINT VALUES ARE PROGD TO EXCEED SST VALUES OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AND THUS WL ADD PATCHY SEA FOG THERE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE GFS PROGS PWAT VALUES TO EXCEED 1.4IN AT CRP WED. ANTICIPATE ISOLD LOCALLY-GENERATED SHOWERS WED OVER THE ERN CWA. EXPECT THAT INCREASING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE...ALONG WITH INCREASING MSTR/INSTABILITY...TO CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH FRONTAL PSN (NEAR THE COAST AT 18Z THURSDAY.) AFTER FROPA...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DECIDED TO USE THE ECMWF AS GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO NON-DIURNAL TEMPS AFTER FROPA THURSDAY... AND THE CORRESPONDING SFC RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LEVELS. DRIER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. EXPECT MUCH COOLER FRIDAY MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE 40S EXPECTED OVER MOST LOCATIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 79 65 86 70 85 / 10 20 10 10 10 VICTORIA 79 60 84 67 84 / 10 20 10 10 10 LAREDO 88 67 94 71 97 / 10 10 0 10 10 ALICE 83 64 90 69 90 / 10 20 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 75 66 78 69 76 / 10 20 10 10 10 COTULLA 85 62 91 67 96 / 10 20 0 10 10 KINGSVILLE 83 65 88 69 88 / 10 20 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 75 68 80 70 77 / 10 20 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ RG/82...AVIATION