796 
FXUS64 KMEG 060152
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
852 PM CDT FRI APR 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1020 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THIS EVENING. SUBTLE BUT WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ARE PRODUCING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. OVERALL FORECAST IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

CJC
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT FRI APR 5 2013/ 

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT FRI APR 5 2013/ 

MAJOR MODEL DISCREPANCIES LEAD TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND WILL ALLOW WINDS TO 
TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO 
THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS TONIGHT 
WILL BE IN THE 40S BUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT READINGS TO BE IN 
THE 60S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. 

SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS 
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY 
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS SOMETIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS 
IS STILL RUNNING 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE PASSAGE 
OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST 
WHICH INDICATES AN IN BETWEEN SOLUTION. STILL TO EARLY TO PINPOINT 
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WITH THE SYSTEM AS MODELS HAVE EVOLUTION 
DIFFERENCES ON TOP OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES. 

KRM
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TOMORROW SHIFTING
FROM THE SOUTH. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  49  74  56  75 /   0   0  10  10 
MKL  40  73  51  74 /   0   0  10  10 
JBR  45  73  55  73 /   0   0  10  20 
TUP  40  73  50  75 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$