674 
FXUS64 KMRX 031902
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
259 PM EDT WED APR 3 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
SLIDE SE THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS 
VERY DRY IN RIDGE AND ACROSS NE AREAS INITIALLY. DAMPENING SHORT 
WAVE WILL MOVE NE INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH AND MID LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL 
ADVANCE NE TO NEAR KNOXVILLE OVERNIGHT. LEANING TOWARD THE WARM SIDE 
OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THURSDAY 
WHILE PWATS INCREASE TO 1.00 TO .75 SW TO NE. INVERTED SURFACE 
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. RAIN WILL 
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY. DOWNSLOPING 
WINDS THURSDAY MORNING WILL HINDER PCPN ACROSS NE VALLEY AREAS. WENT 
ABOVE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR THESE AREAS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL 
CONTINUES THU NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. DEEPER 
MOISTURE AND RAINFALL WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING AS 
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEAKLY FROM THE WEST. LOWER THICKNESS VALUES 
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA SO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. 

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...AT THE BEGINNING OF 
THIS PERIOD THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS TO OUR EAST WITH UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES 
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.  BY SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH HAS ALREADY 
MOVED TO THE EAST ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 
BEGIN. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE WEAK RIDGING GETS FLATTENED OUT AND 
EVEN BEGINS TO BACK AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE ROCKIES AND 
HIGH PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR 
SUNDAY AND MOS GUIDANCE HAS SOME POPS...AM HOLDING OFF ON POPS UNTIL 
MONDAY AND CONTINUING WITH POPS FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE AREA 
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE TROUGH IN THE PLAINS TRUDGES 
THIS WAY.  FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE 
THROUGHOUT...WEND A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE 
AREA ON SUNDAY...MOS MAX TEMPS LOOKED TO NEED MORE OF A GRADIENT 
NORTH TO SOUTH CONSIDERING THICKER CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH ON 
SUNDAY.  FOR WEATHER...ONLY VERY WEAK LIFT IS EXPECTED WITH ANY OF 
THE PRECIP...AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY...SO WILL GO ONLY WITH SHOWERS 
FOR PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             43  54  42  67  41 /  80 100  90  30   0 
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  55  42  64  39 /  20 100  90  40   0 
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  55  41  64  38 /  20 100  90  30   0 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  57  41  63  34 /  10  80  90  60   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SON/GM