582 
FXUS62 KFFC 030832
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
432 AM EDT WED APR 3 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST 
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE CWA WITH 
RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA WILL ENHANCE THE 
OVERRUNNING THEREBY INCREASING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL 
GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE 
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST BY TONIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE 
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
TIGHTEN AND THE EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE 
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WILL INCREASE POPS TO 
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WITH THE CWA ON THE NORTH 
SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT...DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME 
THROUGH TONIGHT.

17

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WET PERIOD IN STORE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES 
DIMINISHING FRIDAY.

MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MOVING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE 
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE LATE THURSDAY THEN ACROSS S GA THURSDAY NIGHT. 
THIS PROVIDES FOR AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN AGAINST A DAMMED AIRMASS UP 
AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MOVEMENT 
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING THE GULF COAST WARM FRONT CLOSE TO THE 
CWA THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 OVER THE AREA JUST 
S OF A CSG TO MCN LINE. THIS WILL GIVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE 
STORMS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND THE GFS IS FASTER 
WITH THIS PROGRESSION THAN THE EUROPEAN. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE 
DIMINISHING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVE OVER THE AREA ON 
SATURDAY. SOME MOISTURE RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MAYBE 
SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR N. EUROPEAN IS MORE GUN HO 
WITH THIS THAN THE GFS. AN APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY 
WITH GIVE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

RATHER COLD AND WINDY ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE 
REST OF THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL RUNNING ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SW CWA. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE
AMOUNTS SHOULD POSE NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN 
COVERAGE AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TODAY. 
MVFR CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH IFR CIGS 
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THU. RAIN WILL ALSO 
INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH...SPREADING INTO ATL/AHN AFTER 
06Z THU. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING 
AND REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  45  54  44 /  20  90 100 100 
ATLANTA         63  47  52  45 /  40 100 100 100 
BLAIRSVILLE     60  40  50  44 /  20  90 100 100 
CARTERSVILLE    61  46  53  44 /  30 100 100 100 
COLUMBUS        69  53  60  50 /  80 100 100  80 
GAINESVILLE     59  44  49  43 /  20 100 100 100 
MACON           68  53  59  52 /  60 100 100 100 
ROME            63  45  54  44 /  40 100 100 100 
PEACHTREE CITY  64  47  53  46 /  50 100 100 100 
VIDALIA         73  57  64  58 /  30 100 100 100 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17