904 FXUS61 KBGM 311039 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 639 AM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS US SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY LOOKS CHILLY AND UNSETTLED WITH RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 430 AM UPDATE... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SET TO MOVE OUR WAY BY LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW OVER KENTUCKY AND THE WESTERN CAROLINA'S WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z. AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL BRING AN END TO THE STEADIER RAIN THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH BY DAYBREAK BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION. THROUGH 06Z DESPITE 850 TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0Z...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND PLAIN RAIN. TOWARD DAYBREAK WE COOL ENOUGH FOR WET SNOW TO MIX IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 430 AM UPDATE... THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BY 18Z MONDAY WITH MORE RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE NY/PA LINE. HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR NEAR MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG CAA ALLOWS FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS LATER IN THE DAY. AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES IN THE CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT SAID QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT AND SO WILL BE ANY...IF AT ALL...SNOW ACCUMS. AS COLDER AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE (850S BETWEEN -12C AND -14C) LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THIS TEMPS WILL BE THE BIG STORY WITH HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 30S OR A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 4 AM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PERIOD THIS MORNING AS INDIVIDUAL 00Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN TROF TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A GLANCING BLOW BY A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT COULD AFFECT NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WITH SOME RAIN, OR MIXED RAIN AND WET SNOW. THE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ARTIC COLD FRONT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN AREAS OF RAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR MOST RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS, INCLUDING POTENTIAL AREAS OF IFR ALONG THE HILLTOPS, WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 22Z. A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING COULD CAUSE KAVP TO ALSO DEVELOP IFR CIGS/VSBYS. WIND CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE 15-25 KTS AND BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THIS EVENING WITH WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. ANOTHER SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD REACH SOME OF THE TERMINALS AROUND THIS TIME TOMORROW...BUT AT THIS POINT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THAT IN THE TAFS. .OUTLOOK... SUN NGT-MON NGT...MVFR IN SCT -SHRA...MIXING WITH -SHSN MON AFTN- MON NGT...WHILE ALSO BECOMING FOCUSED MAINLY ON CENTRAL NY. TUE-WED MORN...SCATTERED -SHSN FROM LAKE EFFECT...MAINLY CENTRAL NY. WED AFTN-THU...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...JAB